LG has apparently bailed out on Blu-ray, but... (1 Viewer)

[DaViD Boulet]

I'm not saying that there aren't any advantages to a format war...even after launch.

I'm saying that I think that the *costs* outweigh those advantages.

both of you coveniently didn't mention any of the obvious disadvantages...you know...the ones that *neither* the manufacturers *nor* the consumers like?

Things like not wanting to buy any player so you don't get stuck with an obsolete hunk of gear.



Ha! the Beta-VHS war is a perfect example of the "worse" format winning for reasons that had nothing to do with a superior design. It was inferior. Consumers that cared about video and sound quality still bemonan that VHS won the battle with it's inferior aspects on both counts.


Another disadvantage to the consumer...lack of software! Just look at the abysmal market for SACD and DVD-A software. Had there been a single high-res audio disc format...sales would have been more plentiful and vendors would have released more product.

A long-standing format war will mean that in addition to the many consumers not purchasing either out of fear of obselecence, those that *do* purchase won't have the level of studio support and software available to them that they would have had under a single-format solution.

I've said this before and I'll say it again, you can have *competition* with a single format. Just like one CD player manufacturer competes for your dollar over another. Toshiba DVD players compete with Sony DVD players...each trying to maximize the chance of a sale by balancing the lowest cost they can offer with the most features.

With a SINGLE format.

This notion that you need incompatible format to stimulate competition is misguided. Will adding the complications of format incompatibility add additional competition-dyanamics? Yes. Are the costs associated with incompatible format launches often more damaging for the consumer than helpful? Yes. Can you have meaningful competition in the market place even in the context of a unified format? Yes.

 

[RobertR]

Balanced by the fact that they WILL have better product that more closely adheres to what THEY want, not industry.

 

[Nils Luehrmann]

No argument there. It's just that with a format war you not only have competition within each format, but you also have competition between each format. Also the kind of competition you are talking about generally only effects prices and sometimes features. In a format war, not only are those affected, but also the format itself is forced to improve, as evidence by the HD video format war.

Here's a question to ask, do you honestly feel that if Apple called it quits on their OS, that consumers would benefit by having only once format choice in OS? How about game consoles? Would consumers get a better product if there was only one console?

I seriously doubt it.

 

[Ed St. Clair]

There are at least two people, who today posted they like what the war is doing. Never underestimate the reasoning of people posting on the internet. You'll find out your wrong a lot!

 

[DaViD Boulet]

Ed,

I'd like to see that article.

I read many accounts at AVS (and think the digitalbits) that said that the breaking point was that Toshiba refused to go with Blu-ray's disc structure even though Sony was willing to go with Toshiba's codecs and other software items. Whether Sony was requiring Toshiba's agreement to their disc structure *first* before detailed talks about the software could begin I don't know (but it makes little difference the point is that disc structure was the one thing Sony wasn't willing to compromise).

Actually, it makes sense that Sony was willing to work with Toshiba's software given that they did, in fact, adopt many of Toshiba's codecs and software approaches for BD (they weren't even going to do anything better than "conventional" dolby digital in the early stages) even though the unification talks broke down.

"Who" was reasponsible for the breakdown is just a matter of perspective...naturally BD folks would say it was Toshiba for not accepting their disc-structure, and HD DVD folks would say it was Sony for trying to make them accept it. Since Sony's disc structure is what is *better* about BD than HD DVD, and VC1 and the lossless audio packing was what made HD DVD better, it seems to me that Sony's desire to keep their disc and use Toshiba's codecs made the most sense. And that's what they ended up doing even without Toshiba's buy-in!

 

[Ed St. Clair]

LOL! ;-)

 

[Nils Luehrmann]

(We may all need a serious group virtual hug soon... after all, at the end of the day we all share very similar view points, and while we may have different ideas or predictions on how we'll get there... I think most of us agree that we want HD video up and running in our home theaters.)

 

[Lew Crippen]

You beat me to it Nils. People chose VHS (especially) because of the larger recording capacity. The ability to time shift large blocks of TV was far more important than audio/video quality.

And on the home computer front, there is not only the current Mac/Windows competing formats without which, I also contend, would not have resulted in Microsoft continnuning to improve Windows at the speed they are doing.

And don’t forget that when those wars began, MS-DOS was not considered the best (technically) of the avai8lable operating systems. Microsoft won (among other reasons) because they got in bed with IBM, not because they had the superior product.

That other companies had competing operating systems, really drove Microsoft to improve at a rapid rate.

Way too early to wish for a single format.

 

[MarioMon]

DaVID, you said "The real question is "when does the format war start to hurt more than it helps?"

I think you hit the nail on the head. To most people current DVD image quality is sufficient and they couldn't care less about HD. At this point in time any confusion that a potential buyer would have because of the different formats will just put them off from buying anything, will no doubt prolong the longevity of the current DVD format longer than most people expect, and will not help to drive down the prices of the competing HD format hardware and software. This "war" which is starting to feel like the VHS-Beta war, may actually turn out worse where no format wins, and HD remains relegated to the select few just like LD with no mass adoption of either format. I hope this will not be the case.

 

[Nils Luehrmann]

Well first of all, as you already admit, most folks are completely satisfied with reg DVD, so even without a format war, we aren't going to see any lines of mass market consumers anxiously waiting to get an HD player. Add to that, less than 25% of the market even has a 720p display, and less than 1% have a 1080p display.

HD Video is not ready for primetime, but it is ready for us small group of consumers who are ready for HD. It is for this reason that there is no "confusion" that is keeping the mass market away, only disinterest. After all, there was no similar format war with LD and the mass market showed absolutely no interest.

On the other hand, we small group of consumers aren't easily "confused", and thus the fomrat war results is products that more closely reflect what we want, and at competive prices.

 

[RobertR]

That's a good point, Nils. David says the format war is "bad" because it causes confusion. But I say the early adopter types (the ones who will determine the winner) don't have that kind of confusion. By the time (if it ever comes) HD on disc breaks out into the mass market, the winner should be clear.

 

[DaViD Boulet]

Robert and Nils,

I also said that in addition to confusion (which WILL affect some consumers who might have otherwise stepped forward and purchased early on), the format war will *discourage* purchases by many HD enthusiasts who are *not* confused, but merely risk-adverse to buying the "wrong" player that ends up becoming obselete. That's not an educational issue...it's just one of how much someone is willing to 'bet' that they've picked the right side.


Example:

I've got a friend with a 1080P front-projector and a Lexicon processor. He's done work on patending video-compression algorithms and could categorically be considered an "expert" in AV. Given that he spent $20K on his 1080P front-projector, he's not a consumer who's frightened away by cost alone.

He is not confused.

However, he is REFUSING to purchase any HD-disc gear until "the war is over".

His reason? He just doesn't want to buy a player that goes obsolete within a year or two. Essentially, he doesn't want to end up with a betamax unit.

This added dimension (and many more) needs to be considered when listing the "costs" of a format war.


If someone's going to quote my rationale for the negatives of a format war, please do me the courtesy of encompassing my argument without selectively leaving out key points!

 

[Nils Luehrmann]

Did I really say "fomrat"? Sounds like some aboriginal rodent. :b

At least we can hope there is a clear winner by then. I certainly expect this to be the case. What is unclear though is if the mass market will ever adopt the winner. Not because it had to endure a fomrat (sorry, couldn’t resist) war, but because by the time the mass market is ready for wide adoption of HD either Microsoft will have their claws deeply embedded into new HD media delivery systems, or perhaps technology like HVD will be available at competitive price ranges, offering vastly superior performance standards to similar Blu-ray technology.

For the time being, I am happy to see these formats battle each other out. Even if Blu-ray is never adopted by the masses, I'll be happy with the player and content knowing the format war gave me a better product, more content, and without premium prices.

 

[RobertR]

Okay, so he's choosing to wait awhile. Not a big deal from my point of view. I waited until the summer of 1998 to get my first DVD player (well over a year after the format was introduced), and I didn't feel like I was paying a big cost (nor was I harming the format).

 

[Nils Luehrmann]

In the wise words of Ari Gold:

[c]

"Let's hug it out b____!"[/c]

 

[DaViD Boulet]

Robert,

my point is that he's going to wait until the format war is OVER. Meaning his purchase will not be contributing to the battle to help the "best" format win. Whichever format that the rest of the early adoptors deem the winner, that's the one that he'll buy.

I think this is a serious issue to consider since DVD only survived because it had such a buy-in from the HT crowd. If many of those same HT enthsiasts decide to wait-out the HD game, that makes it all the more difficult for either of the proposed formats to become established (I'm hopeful and a bit optimistic...like Disney...that Blu-ray will prevail. But nothing is certain and we could end up with neither format becoming a viable platform for film distribution.

Though you never know...if Blu-ray doesn't out-right "win" then universal players could step in about a year or so down the road and keep both formats alive and well into the forseable future. That is a 3rd possibility and isn't as unlikely as it might seem.

 

[Nils Luehrmann]

Which also means he is letting everyone else make the decision for him, and that's ok as I feel confident that the majority of us who will be buying into one of the formats will be buying Blu-ray. However, as you yourself have pointed out many times before, once your friend sees what he is missing, how long do you think he'll even be able to hold off?

If he is so worried about a format war, then I assume he would NEVER buy a game console or even a PC right? Apple is still around so technically that format war is still happening.

I understand why most will wait at least a year to see what happens, but for him to say "never, until it is OVER" would be rather short sighted, and would only keep him from enjoying some incredible video. :frowning:

 

[RobertR]

My view, David, is that history suggests that if consumers really want something, a format war doesn’t keep them from having it. Laserdisc was around for a good 20+ years after the death of the RCA CED format, and VHS was obviously very successful even with the format war with Beta. DVD itself had to compete with VHS, Divx, and laserdisc to a lesser degree. You can point to the SACD-DVD Audio war, but I think the failure of those formats had more to do with consumers simply not wanting them than a format war. In other words, you and your friend shouldn’t worry about it. If BD PROVES itself the best AND people really want what it has to offer, it’ll succeed. If not, then it never deserved to win, no matter how much you may have wanted it to.

 

[DaViD Boulet]

Nils,

you've just expressed why *I'm* going to buy a Blu-ray player...format war or not!






Robert,

Thought-provoking and well expressed.

 

[Ed St. Clair]

WSR #99 Insider's Industry News pg.61: This is the article (by Paul Sweeting) that states; "Once the meetings started, Sony and its allies pretty well closed off any avenue of negotiation by insisting that the Bluray disc structure, based on a 0.1 mm data layer was not negotiable".

Believe me, the article does not paint a pretty picture of Tosh (HD-DVD) either. Just that the data layer was the stumbling block, that killed the mid-May (2005) talks.

Sorry, could not find a link at WSR. Nothing on Goggle search. And I'm not typing the whole dang thing! ;-)