Hurricane Ivan (1 Viewer)

[Dave Miller]

That's exactly what I was referring to. That place is like a giant soup bowl.

Peace,

DM

 

[Malcolm R]

Now that Ivan is nearly home, time to look to the east again. Looks like perhaps Jeanne may be born later tonight or tomorrow.

It's close to the Lesser Antilles, with Tropical Storm warnings already out for the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Long range forecast is rather Frances-like into the Bahamas by Day 5, though at this point it looks to be a much weaker system, perhaps not even hurricane status.

 

[Brian Perry]

Looks like Ivan may give Camille (1969) a run for the title of strongest hurricane to hit the USA. This sucker looks worse with each satellite update!

 

[Malcolm R]

While anything can happen, the official NHC outlook is for increased wind shear to weaken Ivan slightly before landfall, possibly to Category 3.

But at 910 mb, Ivan is very close to matching Camille which was 909 mb at landfall. But it seems somewhat doubtful Ivan will maintain this strength until landfall.

 

[Henry Gale]

Finally starting to see this cloud turn a bit to the north.

 

[Christopher_P]

Bah go away from Pensacola/Mobile area! Shoo hurricane shoo!

 

[Kirk Gunn]

Hopefully the Lows over Nebraska, CO, etc will start providing some action, and get that shear going....

more weather blurbs that show how difficult it is to get these modelling programs to provide decent data:

The intensity forecast is a real challenge with Ivan. The most recent maps showing water temperatures and the depth of the warmer water shows that Ivan will be tracking into warm waters over the southern Gulf of Mexico. However, the depth of the warm water is less than compared to where it has been tracking between western Cuba and Jamaica. This could cause the hurricane to weaken somewhat, especially since it is tracking rather slow.

This same data shows a pool of very warm water with good depth between 85 west and 90 west along 27 north. If our track is correct Ivan will track over this very warm water area during Wednesday afternoon and evening. That could allow Ivan to remain very strong just before landfall.

 

[Dave Miller]

There's been a lot of evaluation of warm water pockets since Charley hit our area and they think that is what happened. Charley moved right over a very deep warm water pocket after it passed the Florida keys and it jumped from a Catagory 2 to 4 quickly.

You never know. I'm not taking down my boards until Wednesday night.

Peace,

DM

 

[Kevin T]

at least you have boards, i think i've waited too late to buy. i've got my girlfriend's brother in line at home depot buying some plywood right now. i think i'm gonna invest in real metal shutters after this blows through (if i have a house left to put them on).

kevin t

 

[Kirk Gunn]

As Malcolm indicated would happen, Tropical Storm Jeanne was just "born"... Still too early to judge as potential paths are anywhere from 100 miles West of Bermuda to Cancun and everywhere in between.

 

[Chris Lockwood]

Looks good for us here in central FL- we've suffered enough. But I feel for those folks on the Gulf Coast from the western Panhandle to New Orleans. Somebody is going to get hammered.

Last I heard was that Jeanne wasn't expected to hit the US.

 

[todbnla]

Packing up to move out now...
Wish us luck!

 

[Malcolm R]

It's quite uncertain that far out in the forecast period, but the 5-day forecast from NHC brings it into the Bahamas by Sunday, toward the southeast US.

Jeanne is also strengthening more than expected. They originally thought it would be a fairly weak system, perhaps not even a hurricane within the 5-day period. But the pressure is dropping pretty steadily and the winds are already sustained at 60 mph, so the NHC now says Jeanne may become a hurricane within 48 hours.

 

[Dean Cooper]

Wild picture of Ivan from the space station

 

[Henry Gale]

That was beautiful Dean, thanks.

 

[Craig S]

Ivan's effects are being felt as far away as Houston. The surf is up - way up - in Galveston, where they've been under a coastal flood warning for a day now. And the city's hotel rooms are all booked up by folks fleeing New Orleans.

Indeed, they are saying there's pretty much no hotel/motel space available anywhere in East Texas. The exodus from the Big Easy is stunning. People that are arriving in town this morning are reporting 16-18 hour travel times from NO (a 6-hour trip normally).

Looks like we're about 24 hours from landfall. But it won't be over then. From the 8 AM (EST) forecast discussion:
And they're concerned that Ivan's remnants will stall for a day or two this weekend over the southern Appalachians, which could cause significant flooding (that's what happened to Houston 3 years ago when TS Alison stalled over the city for a couple of days).

And then there's Jeanne, possibly heading for Florida...

This tropical season cannot end soon enough.

 

[Kirk Gunn]

Good essay on formation and structure of Hurricanes:

http://weather.jsums.edu/hurricane.htm

 

[Ricardo C]

My ex gf is in Hattiesburg, MS. Classes are suspended, and she and her roommate are waiting out the storm in the dorms. Her parents, however, live on the Gulf coast area, and fled to... Mobile, AL. Not really sure what the point was, they're still going to get caught up in the storm.

 

[Malcolm R]

Latest satellite seems to show Ivan becoming better organized and well-defined. The 5pm update will be interesting to see if it's intensifying just before landfall.

Jeanne is now battering Puerto Rico with 70 mph sustained winds, forecast to become a hurricane after it moves off the northern coast and move through the Bahamas over the weekend.

 

[Frank Grimes]

Took us 12 hours to get from New Orleans to Little Rock, about 4 hours longer than usual. The worst was my brother in law's situation, going from Tulane hospital in central NO to Laplace (about 20 miles out of NO): 5 and a half hours!! I would have much preferred getting a 4 hour nap and leaving around 2AM this morning, but the family would have none of it.