How Often Will There Be a New Format Generation? (1 Viewer)

[Seth--L]

I have Comcast, and they offer all the premium channels on demand, such Showtime, HBO, Cinemax, The Movie Channel, and Starz. As Willard mentioned, HBO on demand has all of their shows and specials.

Not to repeat myself, but eventually studios are going to start losing money to on demand services and so they'll just come up with their own one. Even if the movies are not in HD, no one is going to care when for a flat monthly rate, they can instantly access thousands of movies.

 

[CraigF]

Umm, big difference between HD cable and HD on-demand. Or between DVD-quality on cable and on-demand. As far as BW is concerned, that is. Think about it: everybody wanting something different at the same time, as opposed to many people watching the same thing at the same time. I am talking watching anything anytime, like you can do if you own enough discs...

I wasn't commenting on the quality of the medium's presentation, that is practically irrelevant to commercial "success". Look at what most people (not here, probably) watch and listen with. Look at the quality of what the big chain stores sell. How many people are capable of even judging the performance quality? How many of us learn from other pro's here about what to look for, so we can judge quality for ourselves?

Uh uh, A/V quality requires some knowledge and experience to evaluate, so you can bet the typical person won't be doing any of that. Convenience and price and versatility is what sells. Which means niche for anything high quality, when "good" quality is available cheaply. DVD is already capable of good quality.

The thread is about format, and I predict (not much of a stretch IMO/E) anything with the physical format of a disc will not displace DVD as the market leader, regardless of the bit density. The physical medium must be smaller than DVD, possibly credit card or slightly less size like a flash card, thickness I'm not so sure of. Easy to handle and file, durable, but not so small it's easy to lose. AND, just as important as it not looking like a disc, it must be expensive and/or difficult to set up a duplication facility (like it was for discs, at first). I am certain that this new media that displaces DVD will be smart (i.e. some kind of at least minimal processor embedded in the media...this is already cheap to do). Not because we need smartness, but the program owners will require it for numerous reasons.

 

[Rob T]

I'm waiting for data crystals.

 

[Arnie G]

My cable provider can't even provide reliable, fully functioning digital cable. Many of the channels drop out, pixelate, or just don't come in at all. I can't see them replacing any physical video media.

 

[Joe Karlosi]

Sounds good to me!

 

[Chip_HT]

But would the comparison between current DVD and HD-DVD be similar to the comparison between Playstation and PS2? Meaning, would regular DVD's be playable on HD-DVD players?

Just something that I really haven't seen come up yet.

 

[Bryan X]

From what I understand, HD-DVD player specs call for them to be backwards compatible.

 

[Kevin M]

I strongly suspect that current DVD's will be playable on any HD-DVD players that will come down the pike, it would be economically stupid not to offer this compatability to any early (and not so early) adopters who will already have a fairly large library and would be the people most likly to buy HD-DVD in it's first years.

 

[Brian Lawrence]

Hell if HD-DVD ever does catch on then the only thing left for a niche market will be to start selling pristine 35mm and 70mm prints to consumers.

Then we could read posts from people complaining about online reviewers who think they are qualified to judge the quality of a print, when they are viewing their films on a mere 15 foot screen

 

[Joe Karlosi]

Can you imagine?! "Uh-oh -- I mistakenly gave my copy of NORTH BY NORTHWEST to a waitress as a tip!" :rolleyes

 

[TomBartley]

I know the urge is there to create a new format as often as possible, but at some point it consumers are just going to say no. The vast mojority of people don't want to have to buy new equipment every few years, especially if what they already have does the job good enough for them. Certain formats, like CDs, are not going to go away for a very long time. They have such market penetration and adoption that it just wouldn't be feasible. I think DVDs will be along the same lines-they're going to be around for a long time. The biggest problem in moving to new format is will it provide the same kind of huge leap that DVD was over VHS? So many people have accepted DVDs because the differences in sound and picture quality, not to mention longevity and storage, are astounding. The next format has to have this same kind of wow factor. I think that the pace that HDTV is adopted will determine how fast the next generation video format will be released and adopted. HDTV can provide that wow factor over conventional TV, so I think it may be a good indicator as to the speed of a new format's adoption.

 

[Greg Black]

Yep, as has been said several times in this thread, I don't think standard definition DVD is going anywhere, anytime soon. I seriously doubt HD-DVD will be viewed as anything but a very niche market product for at least 10 years after it's introduction, easily. Look at it this way: What does the average consumer want? What do they care about? What do they perceive?

1. HDTV sets are still at or below 1% of television ownership in the United States.

2. Perceived quality of HD-DVD when played back on a SD, analog set will be of negligible difference compared to DVD, and may even be less due to downconversion. (Is this even in the spec? I'm just talking theoretically)

3. Average consumer is perfectly happy with current DVDs audio and video quality.

4. The market has already been so saturated with standard DVDs, that it would impossible to get consumers to adopt a new format so early.

VHS was around for about 20 years. CDs have been around for almost 20 years, and in their case, they don't appear to be getting superceded by SACD or DVD-A, likey ever. I predict DVDs will be around for at least another 10 years. By that time, we may see another new format that renders HD-DVD completely obsolete, and thus the LaserDisc-like market of HD-DVD will quietly fade into oblivion.

 

[Richard Paul]

A little negative towards Blu-ray aren't you? Considering the need for a format to record HDTV I see great reason why Blu-ray will succeed. Though the transition from DVD to Blu-ray is quicker than past formats this is because of the first US broadcast standard change in over 40 years. The ATSC standard made sure that DVD would not have the lifespan that VHS had. Also though DVD will continue for at least another 6 years I see no reason why Blu-ray will be obsolete in 10 years. Blu-ray will be able to record ATSC for the 40+ years that it will be around.

 

[Greg Black]

I'm not trying to be negative at all. Don't misunderstand me. I'm simply trying to be realistic here. When HD-DVD comes out, I have no doubt that I'll be one of the first people to get a player and start upgrading certain movies in my collection, and buying all my new content in whatever high-def format it is.

Since DVD is technically obsolete after only 7 years, I predict that HD-DVD/Blu-Ray will be obsolete even sooner after it's introduction. That's just the way the technology cookie crumbles.

 

[Lydia]

I agree about dvd been seen as a new format.I know i didn't bother to buy you until last year even though most people i knew had one.
My mum and dad are scared to even buy a dvd player start talking about other things and they'd go white.
I certaintly wouldn't be interested in buying something so soon not all videos have even been transfered to dvd yet and the idea of starting new all over again makes me cringe.That may be because i'm poor and a student maybe when i have more money i might care less.I'm not sure.
In a way it feels like the whole i-pod thing no one i know even has one and is interested in one they're happily still buying cds.Although the whole i-pod thing has major advantages over cds.
I'm hoping something wouldn't come out for at least a few years that would be nice.
I think it also depends on how well something is marketed if you get some thing on the news about it and people sometimes mentioning it then it will take a little while to come on.

 

[Bryan X]

HD-DVD players being backward compatible with DVD will help in their penetration of the market.

What I see is that over the course of the next 5 years, HD-DVD players will drop in price to the point where even if you only buy DVDs (which will still be the main format) you'll buy an HD-DVD player because 1) it's only slightly more in cost than DVD or 2) because HD-DVD becomes so cheap that it completely supplants regular DVD players even though regular DVDs are still the primary software.

Because of this backwards compatibility, I think we'll see the software side of this lag in market penetration compared to the hardware side. It won't be until a large share of the market has purchased these 'enhanced DVD players' that HD-DVD discs start to replace DVD discs in the stores.

Technically, it may be a new format, but I think HD-DVD will be seen more as a enhancement to the DVD format. Not the wholesale change as was VHS -> DVD.

 

[Seth--L]

Going back to my prediction of there being no format after DVD but instead video-on-demand:

Comcast Quickly Setting Up Video-On-Demand Channel

Comcast wasted no time on Tuesday following the announcement that Sony had reached a tentative agreement with MGM to buy the studio to issue an announcement of its own saying that it had reached an agreement with the buyers to distribute Sony and MGM movies on a video-on-demand (VOD) channel. "This represents our first major studio deal for VOD content and will enhance the attractiveness of our VOD platform," Comcast Chairman and CEO Brian Roberts said in a statement. He then added the intriguing but unexplained comment: "The agreement also provides us with some very interesting channel creation opportunities." News reports have also indicated that Comcast intends to become an investor in MGM.

http://www.imdb.com/news/sb/#film2

 

[Kevin M]

Comcast....yeah that makes sense, from the people who personally destroyed TechTV comes...Big BrotherTV! Available in 1984....

 

[Joe Karlosi]

I'm waiting for Green-ray myself...