How big will 2002 be? (1 Viewer)

[TerryRL]

With 2001 on course to become the biggest year ever at the box office, 2002 is looking like an even bigger year. I think that 2002 can either match or even surpass how big this year was. Here is a list of the movies expected to make a lot of noise next year (listed alphabetically)...

"The Adventures of Pluto Nash"

"Analyze That"

"Austin Powers: Goldmember"

"Blade 2"

"The Bourne Identity"

"Confessions of a Dangerous Mind"

"Daredevil"

"E.T. The Extra-Terrestrial" Special Edition

"Gangs of New York"

"Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets"

"Ice Age"

"Insomnia"

"James Bond 20"

"John Q"

"Lilo and Stitch"

"The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers"

"Men in Black II"

"Minority Report"

"Mr. Deeds"

"The Panic Room"

"Peter Pan: Return to Neverland"

"The Road to Perdition"

"Scooby Doo"

"The Scorpion King"

"Showtime"

"Signs"

"Spider-Man"

"Spirit: Stallion of Cimarron"

"Spy Kids 2: The Island of Lost Dreams"

"Star Trek: Nemesis"

"Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones"

"Stuart Little 2"

"The Sum of All Fears"

"The Time Machine"

"Treasure Planet"

"The Tuxedo"

"We Were Soldiers"

"Windtalkers"

"X-Men 2"

"XXX"

For the most part, this is a pretty impressive list. There will be a few disappointments (*cough* Scooby Doo *cough*), but I think this lineup is pretty damn good.

I'm expecting "Attack of the Clones", "Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets", "Spider-Man", "Minority Report", "Men in Black II", and "The Two Towers" to all be among the top 10 biggest hits of the year, with AOTC ending the year at #1.

I don't think AOTC will open as big as 'Potter' did (that's a record I think will last a while), but I do expect it to become the second biggest opener in history and surpass the $100 million in only 4 days (espcially considering that it's opening on a Thursday). If the movie is really good I think it'll earn as much as $375 million domestically.

I think 'Chamber of Secrets' will be the #2 movie with a $250 million-plus haul. This would automatically vault 'Potter' among the top 5 film franchises in history. Only the SW and "Jurassic Park" franchises can boast of having more than one film earning over $200 million domestically. SW is 4-for-4 so far, with JP having 2 $200 million earners out of 3 films.

When it's all said and done, I think these two films will carry 2002 to even greater heights than were acheived in 2001. We'll see what happens.

 

[Neil Joseph]

It will be a huge year I predict. There are other sequels that I don't think are on that list, I have to check.

 

[Dana Fillhart]

Isn't The Matrix: Reloaded due out late 2002?

 

[Patrick Sun]

IIRC Matrix 2 is being pushed back for a 2003 release.

 

[Roland G]

well it may not be that big...but David Finchers new movie "Panic Room" is also going to be a 2002 release..

 

[Matthew Chmiel]

Out of the list Terry posted...
Ceritifed Hits:
Austin Powers: Goldmember
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets
James Bond 20
Men in Black II
Spiderman
Spy Kids 2: The Island of Lost Dreams
Star Wars - Episode II: Attack of the Clones
Stuart Little 2
The Sum of All Fears
X-Men 2
Possible Hits:
Analyze That
Blade 2
The Bourne Identity
Confessions of a Dangerous Mind
Daredevil
E.T. (Special Edition)
John Q
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
Mr. Deeds
The Road to Perdition
Showtime
Signs
Star Trek: Nemesis
The Tuxedo
XXX
Could Do Well or Could Bomb:
Scooby Doo
The Scorpion King
Minority Report
The Time Machine
The Panic Room
We Were Soldiers
Windtalkers
Ceritifed Bombs:
The Adventures of Pluto Nash
Gangs of New York
Ice Age
Lilo and Stitch
Peter Pan: Return to Neverland
Spirit: Stallion of Cimarron
Treasure Planet
Films not in that list that I'm looking foward to include Cheaters, Jason X, Cinema Paradiso: Director's Cut, Big Trouble, Cube 2: Hypercube, and a few others. Also, there's films I haven't heard about that could spark an interest for me.

 

[Pete-D]

I suspect Episode II could break Harry Potter's record. When you account for inflation Harry Potter isn't so far ahead of Episode I, also since 1999, more higher-end multiplexes have been built, so Episode II should open on more screens than Episode I did. The combination of opening on more screens and higher ticket prices should buoy Episode II to surpass Episode I's opening numbers honestly. A lot of people who saw Episode I on the opening weekend will go see Episode II on opening weekend as well, I just don't expect the camping out for tickets to be as prevelant this time around.

More subdued expectations for the second film will also help, although if Lucas can't deliver a solid movie this time around, there will be negative repurcussions in the long run.

Next year is going to be absolutely monsterous. It should be interesting if the Austin Powers franchise still has some juice in it, or whether it peaked in 1999.

 

[Hubert]

It will be huge. Here's the key for AOTC. For TPM, Lucas opened the movie in a very small number of theaters. I applaud George for keeping quality, but George needs to open it in at least 3000 theaters. If I read correctly, TPM opened in only a little over 2000 theaters domestically. It is shocking when you consider it made 430 million in only 2000 theaters. Open AOTC in 3000 theaters and I think it has a chance to beat TPM and maybe push 500 million. If not, then it may come in just under 400 million. ESB fell a little short of Star Wars. So unless George does as was done with Harry Potter, it probably won't pass or reach TPM.

AOTC, Two Towers, and Harry Potter will all be the big blockbusters.

 

[TerryRL]

TPM opened in 2,970 theaters in '99. At it's absolute widest peak (during Memorial Day Weekend) it was playing in ,3126 theaters. What surprised me the most about TPM's performance was how sturdy it's legs were. Despite the critical lambasting it took, it showed remarkably strong legs from week to week.

I think if AOTC turns out to be a really good movie, I honestly think the sky is the limit for how successful it'll be. I do agree that Lucas should look to open it wider than he did TPM though.

Since there are a lot more quality theaters now than there were in '99, I think he'll open AOTC in at least 3,200 theaters.

 

[Hubert]

I thought it was more like 2000. Oh well, just crank it and open it in a boatload of theaters. See what it can do.

 

[TerryRL]

For as much hype was associated with TPM, 2,970 theaters was a really modest sum. He could've easily opening the movie just as wide as 'Harry Potter' opened last weekend (3,672 theaters). I also applaud Lucas' insistance that TPM only play in the best theaters, but with more quality theaters out there I do agree that he should open the movie as wide as possible and really see what it can do. I totally agree with your stance here.

In terms of widest openings next year, I think 'Potter' will again lead the field and open in more locations than even the first movie did. Don't be surprised if 'Chamber of Secrets' debuts in more than 3,700 theaters. Sony is going to release both "Spider-Man" and "Men in Black II" mega-wide as well.

What's funny is that AOTC probably won't open as wide as any of the above films I mentioned, but it'll still very likely have the biggest opening weekend of the year. And if the movie is as good as I think it'll be, it could even have a shot at out-earning TPM.

 

[Bill J]

Right now, the only movies I'll consider seeing in 2002 are:

Black Hawk Down

Gangs of New York

We Were Soldiers

Windtalkers

 

[Alex Spindler]

Wow Bill, $30 and your movie going budget is set
I agree that 2002 has some remarkable looking product to look forward to. Also some really good films by all indications. Something to look forward to.

 

[Hubert]

WOW! No Star Wars, LOTR, or Harry Potter for Bill. AOTC, TTT, and Harry Potter are 3 definites for me. Hell, what am I talking about. I'll see the majority of those films. You're gonna be missing out on some great stuff Bill.

 

[Chuck Mayer]

I personally felt that 2001 was somewhat of a letdown, but I am hoping for a strong finish. I am certain I'll enjoy 2002 more, due to SW and LOTR:TTT, but I believe that We Were Soldiers and Black Hawk Down will be quite good as well.

Matt,

I think you are off on several of your picks...

I think Blade 2 and XXX will be very popular (not HUGE, but they'll be more than a blip). I have learned to NEVER bet against an animated Disney Movie (Lilo and Stitch)... everytime I think it'll be stupid, it's Lion King!

AOTC will beat HP's opening weekend numbers...there are a lot more "quality" theaters than there were in 1999.

But who cares about money? I just want good movies. 2001 taught me one thing. Never trust a sequel with a two-year or less turnaround time. They are inevitably green-lit without a working script, and it shows...

Take care,

Chuck

P.S. And David Fincher's Panic Room...my favorite actress in a movie by one of the best directors out there...hmmmm???

 

[Tom J. Davis]

I don't think AOTC will open as big as TPM, but if it's as good as alot of people think or hope it will be it may have even stronger legs than TPM did. Think of the die hard Star Wars fans that were let down with TPM that didn't go back and see it. Give them a better Star Wars movie and they will be going to see it alot more than TPM. Not to mention all of the people that thought TPM was good, should be drooling over AOTC if it's better. Could it be worse than TPM??

I doubt it.

 

[Hubert]

Depends on what you thought of TPM. Obviously, a lot of people must have liked it for it to make 430 million dollars domestically. That's a gargantuan sum. I enjoyed it quite a bit. Although there were some things I didn't care for.

Here's the thing. Lucas geared TPM more to younger viewing audiences because that was the only movie of the three that he could have schewed more to younger audiences. Episode II and III are going to be very dark, and very serious. These movies won't really be movies at all for the kids. At least not by my estimation. AOTC will be very dark and serious. Episode III will be extremely dark and extremely serious. So he took his one shot and gave young kids something to enjoy. I could have done without Jar Jar's foolishness and some of Jake Lloyd's bad dialogue, especially during the space battle. But, I still enjoyed it immensely.

 

[Brad_W]

The last I heard (this was a while back) Terminator 3 was going to come out in 2002. Who knows though and if it will even be a hit.

 

[Brad_W]

Oh and didn't David Cronenberg's Basic Instinct 2 fall apart? So we won't be seeing that any time soon.

 

[Matthew Chmiel]

Quote:



Matt,
I think you are off on several of your picks...
I think Blade 2 and XXX will be very popular (not HUGE, but they'll be more than a blip). I have learned to NEVER bet against an animated Disney Movie (Lilo and Stitch)... everytime I think it'll be stupid, it's Lion King!





Blade 2 could be big, especially since previous New Line sleeper hits had sequels that made over $190 million (Rush Hour 2 and Austin Powers: TSWSM come to mind). XXX could be big, especially with Vin Diesel's new star power.

Lilo and Stich could be big, but the question is, will it turn in a profit? Dinosaur and Atlantis (two of Disney's last three animated efforts that came straight from their studio and not Pixar) were in the red, even if both of them took in $100 million (Atlantis cost a bit over $100 million, IIRC, and Dinosaur, anywhere from $120 million to $250 million... depending if you count the secret lab Disney built to produce the film).

In my honest opinion, don't start making predections on The Two Towers until we see how Fellowship of the Ring does. The other two LOTR films depend on how well Fellowship does. As of now, Fellowship can take in anywhere from $90 million (which would be a major dissapoitment to New Line) to $300 million.

AOTC will beat Harry Potter's record. Face it, there are more fans of Star Wars then there are of Harry Potter. TPM made $25 million on 2,900 screens when ticket prices were $4.50 for matinee and $7.50 for a night show at most places. Harry Potter made $30 million on 3,300 screens where ticket prices are $5.50 at most places and $8 - 9 for a night show. If Lucas has sense, he will put AOTC on 3,500 screens and watch the money flow in (I'd put good money that AOTC makes $35 - 40 million on the first or second day of opening)... but that doesn't stop HP: Chamber of Secrets from beating AOTC's record (if it does set one).