Amir at AVS has been addressing the issue, and naturally he's in a position to try to paint a positive picture for early HD DVD adoptors... and he's suggested that it's possible/likely that current drives will be able to read the discs. That's the only real catch, because interpreting the data could always be done via firmware, but you can't replace your disc-drive nearly as easily (or for no cost).
So it remains to be seen.
But bear in mind that the real point of this 51GB TL disc announcement by Toshiba was to try to steal BD thunder. It may not even make it to the HD DVD spec. They did this same thing with their 45GB disc proposal back during Cedia. I'm not saying it can't or won't happen... just that the real point of the announcement was to try to sound like they're "equal" with BD in terms of format potential in the minds of the consumers/industry reps at the show.
Of course, BD has 100 and 200 GB prototypes that are even more developed than the 51GB TL HD DVD proposal... so it's really a game of who's willing to risk compatibility with early adoptors' hardware to up the stakes.
============================ "At CES 2007, attendees can preview the 200GB blue laser disc, and learn more about the technologies behind the format that is redefining the consumer electronics industry." ============================
It looks like Toshiba is serious about producing this disk. From what I have been reading, the technical specs should be ratified by the DVD forum by mid-2007.
Today I saw an article that stated that Toshiba would be releasing tripple layer disc by the end of the year. But this report said that each layer would contain smaller pits and would hold 17 gigs instead of the current 15. That would mean that the disc would hold 51 gigs and the article even showed an HD-DVD disc with 51 gigs printed on it.
so i have to wonder what the point of all the space would be if it wont be used.
there are discs being releassed now that arent using all the space, or not taking advantage of the possible space.
they will still release discs with missing extras, no releases with both theatrical and extended cuts using branching, 2 disc releases like mission impossible 3 and clerks 2.
oh, they'll release the longer cuts or alternate cuts and the extras but on the second and third dipped discs.
i'm sure i could be wrong on some or even all of that
no conclusions can be drawn by any current software releases not taking full use of available 50GB storage. The surface hasn't even been scratched. Trying to draw conclusions now from current practices is like trying to make judgements about SD-DVD back in 1997.
Also keep in mind that so far every BD from WB is intended to mirror the HD DVD release, so 50GB BD discs from WB are being effectively treated like 30GB platters.
Disney and Fox should have some impressive 50GB authoring by mid summer that will start to express what the fuss is all about. Should 50GB specs be passed for HD DVD and be compatible with existing hardware, I'm sure we'll see HD DVD aligned studios find meaningful ways to make use of the space as well.
i still think that things like tv shows seasons will show up on several discs the way the sopranos and smallville are. how can the studio sell a show like that for $70-$120 if it is only on 1 or 2 discs.
I think that's completely reversed. TV series is the one place that high-density disc structure stands the best chance. In the case of TV season sets, consumers already view the "season" or "show" as the value, not the number of discs they are forced to cycle through to watch every episode. In fact, changing discs and having to pull out booklets to locate the right disc to resume play is the number one annoyance with multi-disc TV sets.
The fewer the discs the better when it comes to shows.
As far as *movies*,
yes, the consumer has been conditioned to view "2 disc special edition" as a value-promising term. But that could change if the studios play their marketing cards right with high-capacity software.
i agree with that. but i thinnk the studio releasing the set won't do it that way.
an entire season on 1 or 2 discs would be perfect but while consumers view the show as the value will they think spending the money i mentioned above is justified for 1 or 2 discs?
thats why i think the releases will continue to be many discs per set to make it look like they are getting more for the higher price. even after there is an abilty to get it all on 1 disc.