From Cedia: Don't count Blu-Ray out yet....

Discussion in 'Playback Devices' started by Ronald Epstein, Sep 14, 2006.

  1. dpippel

    dpippel HTF Premium Member
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    Insignificantly IMO. Sony is betting a large part of the Blu-ray farm on the PS3, and I think it's going to bite them where it hurts.
     
  2. dpippel

    dpippel HTF Premium Member
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    Right, but the people interested in HDTV for their PS3 consoles mainly want them for high-def GAMES, not watching movies.
     
  3. Shawn Perron

    Shawn Perron Supporting Actor

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    Because liking games means you can't like movies? Sony is banking on PS3 owners to buy movies, and I think people are going to be surprised how strong the sales will be IF the MSRP on the movies comes down to a more DVD like price. Warner Bros of Japan has shown that the high price of UMDs was more responsible for slow sales then the lack of interest. After warner lowered the price of thier UMDs to $7.50 US, thier sales went up 10 times what they had been selling.
     
  4. Austan

    Austan Second Unit

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    If a PS3 owner bought a few Blu Ray movies for "experiment only" why would they turn around and buy a HD DVD player? Its a format war and the consumer is very weary of being left obsolete and they are not buying as evident in sales figures for HD players and software. Every sale of software no matter how insignificant counts.
     
  5. dpippel

    dpippel HTF Premium Member
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    Yet UMD still failed in the end.

    Look, I'm not saying that gamers aren't interested in movies. I'm saying that if Sony is counting on the PS3 to drive a huge number of Blu-ray movie sales (and they are) **I** think they're mistaken. I predict that PS3 related Blu-ray sales will be less than 30% of Sony's projections. My opinion. You have yours. The only thing that will settle the issue is waiting to see what happens and what the market looks like months after the launch of the PS3.
     
  6. ppltd

    ppltd Producer

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    Bad reasoning. Apples to Oranges. The UMD issues, no matter what the numbers are, proves the conjecture out. (BTW, That is less than 1/4 of a movie per system owned.) They are being phased out. I will state it again, I do not believe the Sony PS3, XBox 360 or any gamming system will become a HT center piece.

    QUOTE=Austan]I understand this can be an emotional debate. Especially if you are invested. But I'm looking at the numbers. The number of CE Manufacture support... the number of PS3 that will be sold no matter what... the number of retail outlets support...[/quote]

    No emotion here, Austan. As I stated in an earlier comment, I am a current XBox360, HD-DVD owner, and when released, I will purchase the Pioneer Elite BR player and PS3 (Will wait for that until after the release rush). I am just stating opinions.

    Thomas Eisenmann
     
  7. ppltd

    ppltd Producer

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    Shawn, I am under no myth, just facts. In no way do I believe that these younger buyers have little discretionary income, as can be seen by the "toys" they own. Being a 54 year old gamer, playing home games since the release of RCA's original system, still owning a Vectrex system (that works), and remembering quite well the hours I spent in the arcard plunking quarters in the games, I know the age of gamers cover a wide area. I also know not to get my information from the blogs on video game web sites. Listening to this you might actually believe that there is a hill of difference between the power of the PS3 vrs. XBox 360, or that HD-DVD is better or worse than BR.

    But the fact is, as we get older, other responsibilities take away from our play time, and tends to put gamming at a lower level than when we were younger. As I stated before, there are exceptions to any rule.

    Thomas Eisenmann
     
  8. Austan

    Austan Second Unit

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    XBOX360 has no built in HD DVD drive. you must make an initial investment on the game console then if you wanted to experiment with HD DVD you have to buy an estimated $199 external HD DVD drive. HD DVD media is not a spur of the moment purchase. Thats why the XBOX360 doesnt help HD DVD media sales. It must be a conscious decision by that game console owner to buy the external HD DVD drive first before they buy HD DVD media. On the other hand, a PS3 owner only needs to be at the check out register, see a Blu Ray movie and say, "hmmm I wonder".

    10 million XBOX360 owners does not equal 10 million potential HD DVD media buyers.
    10 million PS3 owners equals 10 million potential Blu Ray media buyers.

    The comparison of UMD to Blu Ray has nothing to due with the adoptance of a media format or the survival of it. It has everything to do with the spur of the moment or "experimental" purchase. 8.2 million UMD sold is and indication that gamers want to see what their hardware has to offer. Those numbers add up especially when you are talking about millions of PS3. If HD DVD media sales were into the millions the format war would be over by now. Because the sales numbers are low, PS3 makes a huge impact.

    Of course everything will eventually sell out. The question is will demand be greater than supply. PS3 will be manufactured as quickly as possible and they will sell out just as quickly. The number of PS3 will be in the millions. The number of HD DVD and Blu Ray players will not be in the millions. The number of external HD DVD drives for the XBOX360 will not be in the millions either.

    If you buy a HD A1 today, it is already discounted and I havent seen any OOS complaints. If you buy a XBOX360 today, you can go to your local Walmart and it will be available. (BTW the PS2 is still outselling the XBOX360)
     
  9. Brian-W

    Brian-W Screenwriter

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    Hate to break it to you - you're incredibly far off base. The average gaming age right now is 15-34, and the target audience is 18-36 year olds. Why? They have the income, they go out and buy, and all those Xbox 360s were bought by that age group. See a large number of 'family friendly' titles on X360 (or even the to debut PS3)? No. It's all aimed at an older audience. Why? Because THAT'S who is buying the majority of games (especially at launch) now.

    This isn't the 80's (or even early 90's) when gaming was more of a 8-18 year old crowd. The dynamics have changed, and the games being released today prove that.

    The 'youth' market (under 15) doesn't even start to get addressed until the later stages of a platform introduction, especially from a hardware perspective. Parents generally don't buy their kiddies $300-$500 game consoles. They wait until they hit the magic $199 or less number. PS1 was like that, PS2 will be like that too. In fact, the youth market for PS1 didn't really blow up until PS2 was launched.

    I should know, I make games for a living, I have all the data (NPD, market research, etc), and have witnessed it for the past 20 years.
     
  10. ppltd

    ppltd Producer

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    This is current. If I read the press releases correctly, MS will be making a XBox360 with internal HD and HDMI around the first of the year. This will put MS and Sony at the same starting gate as far as HD enabled Game Systems. I will have to verify this release, but I think I read it in the Cedia news a few days back.

    Thomas Eisenmann
     
  11. Jesse Blacklow

    Jesse Blacklow Cinematographer

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    Nothing was announced (and certainly no press releases), except for Microsoft denying these as rumors.
     
  12. ppltd

    ppltd Producer

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    Ditto above. 'Late Teens...'
     
  13. ppltd

    ppltd Producer

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    You are correct. Not from a press release. If I can find the notice I will post it.

    Found it, and my mistake. It is from a sometimes reliable, sometimes not source. As far as MicroSoft denying it, as expected, they would either way.

    http://www.dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=4161

    Thomas Eisenmann
     
  14. Brian-W

    Brian-W Screenwriter

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    is a direct contradiction to the implication that the primary audience is an older one, one with discretionary income.
     
  15. ppltd

    ppltd Producer

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    Then don't assume that you do buy reading into a comment something that is not there just to make a point. My comment was not meant to be specific, and again I repeat, gamers come in all ages.

    As far as the second part of my comment, I again make no reference to ages. Many parents will attempt to buy their children the PS3 this year as it was with the 360.

    Finally, to close out this thread, at least for my part, all of this discussion is conjecture only: There is only one available HD player manufacturer (RCA discounted as it is a repackages Toshiba), there is only one available BR player manufacturer, and there is no PS3. With no real data other than suspect press releases, blogers, and usual inaccurate news sources, past experience is all we can go on. At this point, there are too many variables to make any accurate assessment even on that, only best guesses. None of which will mount to a hill of beans 6 months from. Because at that time, the writing should be on the wall, what ever it might be.

    Thomas Eisenmann
     
  16. Jason Harbaugh

    Jason Harbaugh Cinematographer

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    That is still wrong, the average gamer's age is 33. I already posted the link with the independent research stating such. "Teens" represent the minority of gamers now, and the direction consoles have gone proves just that. Nintendo is the only one trying to go back to their roots and expand into untapped gamers, or those gamers that seem to have been neglected by MS and Sony.
     
  17. ppltd

    ppltd Producer

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    From Blockbuster:
    http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/st...0673049&EDATE=
    "Survey by Blockbuster(R) Indicates Video Game Rentals Span All Age Groups


    Increased Popularity in Games Sparks Extended Rental Period

    DALLAS, June 3 /PRNewswire/ -- It's not just for kids anymore.
    A recent survey commissioned by Blockbuster -- the number one rental outlet for video games -- indicates that more than 60 percent of 12 to 34-year-olds had rented a video game within the past three months. The survey also reveals that video games are becoming more and more popular with all age groups.
    "While 12-24 year-old males certainly dominate the games industry, the activity is becoming more and more popular with young girls and even older customers," says Allen Klose, Blockbuster vice president of market research.


    And this:
    http://www.theesa.com/archives/files...20demographics

    I point these out to show that there are hundreds of demographics run on the industry, with widely varing results. If 33 is the average age, and I have no reason to believe differently (For players, not purchasers), than half are above and half are under. Sounds like we are both right and wrong.

    "
     
  18. Shawn Perron

    Shawn Perron Supporting Actor

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    From the Blockbuster survey:


    This survey is for the year 1997 which is about 9 years ago. Those 12-24 year old gamers would now be 21-33 which would in fact reinforce the numbers in the 2nd link you posted. The 2nd link is for actual retailers selling the games as opposed to the 1st which is renters who have thier own seperate demographic market. Also there is a trend starting where those below the age of 18 are less interested in video games then in the past.
     
  19. Brian-W

    Brian-W Screenwriter

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    and of course, that Blockbuster survey is for the RENTAL, not purchasing.
     
  20. ppltd

    ppltd Producer

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    All I am saying is you got to read numbers for what they are, or for the reason they are posted.

    You also have to seperate the PC from Console gamers, the purchasers from the players, the devoted from the part time players.

    The 33 medium age [based on 2005 statictics] is a combitation of all players, console and PC. But is it the buyers or players that will come to play when the PS3 is released? Below is an quote from the linked site. It relates to most frequent game players of console games.

    http://www.theesa.com/facts/gamer_data.php

    "For Console Gamers...

    Forty percent of most frequent game players are under eighteen years old.
    Thirty-five percent of most frequent game players are between 18 and 35 years old"


    The nice thing about statistics is you can always find data to support your argument. And all demographic information is based on statistical formula's. Additional data on the demographics can be obtained (for a costly price) at Gartner Group http://www.gartner.com/. This would probably be the most industry accepted research report.
     

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