Fox's Steve Feldstein Puts The Format war To Rest (2 Viewers)

[Mike_G]

I'm not stoked because there are no games coming for quite a while that I care about. Even the Wii only has Zelda.

 

[BrettGallman]

But you're assuming that only 12 people wanted them at each store, which just isn't true. I've heard several cases where stores had to turn people away. If each store would have gotten 30+, they would have sold out, and you'll see that happen in two weeks when Best Buy and Wal-Mart are sold out by the afternoon of the 16th.

 

[PerryD]

From what I've read, every single person waiting in line for a PS3 preorder has the full intention of reselling it on Ebay to make a quick buck.

 

[Paul_Scott]

Spider-man
James Bond
Rocky
Alien
Die Hard

all these franchise will be rife for exploitation/tie-ins next year and all at the moment are Bd exclusives. Considering that Universal is HD DVDs only exclusive at the moment, what big exclusive releases can that format expect?
not the Spielberg movies...too soon.
what is there after those?
HD DVD looks like its chugging along nicely now (and I'm extremely happy with my purchases), but you can't stick your head in the sand- Bds day(s) are coming- now it will remain to be seen how well the attach rates are for that format once there are actual bolockbuster out and available. If we see these titles on the shelf and yet numbers are still indicating only lackluster enthusiasm, then The HD DVD camp can start holding their breath for more studio crossovers- otherwise until then (which is more than a year off the way I see it) I would suggest enjoying your HD DVD purchases and be ready to brace for impact when Bds big titles do start rolling out- which could be as soon as the day and date release of Casino Royale, which may carry with it more Bonds- and if not that, then the 3 Spider-man films in the fall for sure.

 

[GlennH]

"Cigars!"

 

[ppltd]

There are some great franchises from all of the studios, and there is enough reason to hold off some of the big Fox release as there are the Universal releases. We will likely see few of them until the player count goes a lot higher.

Now, if the PS3 and HD add-on for the 360 continue to sell as well as they are currently (preorders), the first of the year could see a very large number of players in both formats in consumers hands.

For me, after hitting my 39th HD and BD purchases, with another 12 on order, the initial 'I got to buy em all' thrill is fading, and I will become much more selective in my future purchases. Any DVD I currently own will be upgraded if, and only if, the HD release brings a lot to the release. There are far too many current releases with the quality upgrade do not warrant the costs involved in the HD release.

As far the dozen or so franchises that could be considered 'system sellers' on both sides of the house, owning both formats I am covered. But I am not sure any of these releases will go along way with the general buying public who seem to be just fine with current DVD's.


I have no idea when (or if) the exclusive studios will begin crossing camp lines, but I expect it to happen much sooner than later, at least for Disney, and probably Fox also. But this is just MHO.

 

[MarekM]

Disney and Fox will not go to HD-DVD if

- protection scheme will not change
- region coding will not be added


Marek

 

[Chuck Mayer]

Disney and Fox will go where the money is. Don't think otherwise.

If HD players start to severely outnumber the BD players, Fox and Disney will jump on board. It's a revenue stream.

 

[MarekM]

Of course in that case I am sure they will go...

there are too many IFs around.....

- for now they are not going anywhere (revenue is almost NONE in HD market from disks sold)
- if people will be buying only HD-DVD players and addons, and PS3 will crash (NOT HAPPENING), than HD-DVD will outsold BR players... we will see what will happen after 17. november
- revenue stream will be starting interesting if one or other camp will have 1-5 mill. units.... HD-DVD alone with some hundret thousands and more possible addons sold will have almost impossible hard to get 1mil units.... on the other hand even with all delays of BD players if they will have all out and price will maybe go little bit donw (for players) plus PS3, they will reach that milestone much much easier...

Marek

P.S. CES in january will show if there are any movemenets in both camps... if Disney and Fox will not support HD-DVD on CES, than HD-DVD will have it much harder, because HW companies will see there is no new software support...

 

[Chuck Mayer]

I just don't see it. Between the current bases and the PS3 (lack of) availability, I don't see BD "getting ahead" anytime soon. The price of the player is the long pole in the tent for both formats. I think the PS3's have been countered to SOME extent by the 360 add-on (which is movie specific...the PS3 is not). I just don't see BD running away with it. The most likely event is that both formats grind against each other until neither are relevant. Unless BD can get their player down to an equivalent price. And soon.

 

[ppltd]

Actually, I think MS is projecting 15 % buyin for existing base of 7 - 8 mill. IMHO, this is a very conservative number and I think the % range will probably be closer to 20%. Please note, we are talking about the existing base. When it comes to new console buyers, this does not hold true. That would put HD players in th 1.2 to 1.5 range. The only real question is, how many add-on will be available this year. If the MS numbers hold up, no studio can aford to stay exclusive. THe stock holders would not stand for the loss of profit. BTW, this goes for Universal also.

 

[MarekM]

there are some valid points there....
but for me addon with xbox360 without HDMI is no HD, but that's just me....,
just imagene if some restrictions on analog outputs will came along...... they are done...

even with 400.000 PS3 on luch and 1.6mil before the end of year (yes we will see if that number will hold..) all those people WILL BUY FEW Blu-ray movies just to check them out....... how many more movies they will buy later, it's unclear,.......

again, if numbers hold you will have 2mil PS3s and let's say 30-60.000 other Blu-ray players... against well... 80-120.000 HD-DVD toshiba players + 100-400.000 addons ? I did not read how many they want to put out befor the end of the year....

please correct me with any info you've got...

so you have 2.060 mil. against 0.180-0.500

Marek

 

[Chuck Mayer]

So you won't "count" X360 without HDMI, but you assume every PS3 buyer has an HDTV??? Or will buy BD movies? That's a bit of a double standard.

 

[AaronSCH]

The long list of "what ifs" has been exhausted in these threads. I believe we will all know Blu-ray's fate after the PS3 launch and subsequent software sales in the first quarter. The only real question is whether the game player strategy (Both PS3 and X-Box 360) is flawed. The failure of this strategy will leave the Blu-ray camp with no other choice but to drastically cut prices on stand alone players to compete with HD DVD. There is no sense in predicting anything until the numbers are crystal clear ...and we will know pretty soon whether we placed our bets on the eventual winner or loser.

 

[MarekM]

Well Chuck, to have a FULL ADVANTAGE of PS3, you should have a HDTV, am I clear now ?
And bout PS3 owners buying movies, yes, they will BUY few movies just to see what is it all about, and I wrote in my post, that if they will continue to do that, it's unclear......

Marek

 

[Chuck Mayer]

Owning an HD player, and getting a BD player, I think both are eventual losers. I think that more now than ever.

Marek, you used the qualifier of a HDMI cable (when you can get HD without it) and I used an HDTV. Same deal. I am not putting you on the spot, but the point needed clarification

 

[AaronSCH]

High definition is here to stay whether it is HD DVD or that other format. You will always have people that will want the tangible experience of shopping for both music and movies. Everyone, both family and friends, that have seen the picture delivered by my HD A1 are chompin' at the bit to get their hands on one as well. It is only a matter of time and money. Standard DVDs, Digital downloading and HD broadcasts will be additional distribution channels. One does not necessarily supplant the other.

 

[Ronald Epstein]

I hope I did not misunderstand that remark.

I highly disagree that HD-DVD and BLU-RAY will both
be losers.

One must win!

We are moving forward to the next high definition format.
The question isn't whether there will be high definition DVD
but rather if we can live with two separate formats or just one.

One of these two formats, if not both, are going to be with us
for quite some time. There is already too much investment being
made by the studios.

 

[ppltd]

I think the PS3 will outsell the HD add-on, but my point is, at a certain install base, exclusivity become a very costly disadvantage to the studio. A 1/2 Mill or 3/4 million install base equates to much lost revenue. I can not see how any of the studios on either side can justify to their stock holders why they thought it was a good idea not to support the other team. At this point, it looks more like ego problems, rather than any thing else.

Anyway, after the Christmas season, I think things will look a lot clearer.

As far as HDMI, I am with you to a point. Currently, the 360 supports 1080p VGA and Component, and by the time the industry completly embrases HDMI and delivers on the products, we will be 6 to 9 months into 2007. By that time, if the HD market place is to survive, we should be seeing 200 - 300 price range BD and HD-DVD players. At that point, both the PS3 and the 360 become a non-issue in the race. (Just my opioion).

 

[Chuck Mayer]

I think the high-def hardware format is going to be like laserdisc for several years (to DVD's "VHS"). Until HD television becomes the norm, until the HDTV sales far outstrip regular TV sales, until players get below $300, I don't see HD being anything beyond niche.

The jump from DVD to hi-def discs provides a picture and audio upgrade. VHS to DVD provided both of those, plus digital sound/picture, plus no rewinding, plus storage, plus ease of use. I still have trouble seeing the average viewer (which MADE DVD, not us) buy into either for some time. Leading to a war of attrition between the formats. I'd love to be wrong.

The reason I think HD is not "waiting" for BD to beat it is simple. Unless there is a significant and OBVIOUS advantage to BD vs. HD, cost will rule the day. It's that simple. Whichever one is cheaper will win.

Put simply, it's way too early to tell. I do think the "winner" will be determined by COST, not exclusivity or a few MB of storage. For the few brief years until downloadable hardrive HD content is unleashed. iTunes has already provided the business model.