Blu Ray delivers another blow to hd.

Discussion in 'Blu-ray and UHD' started by Greg T, Jan 25, 2006.

  1. Greg T

    Greg T Stunt Coordinator

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    With Disneys purchase of Pixar, B/R has such a studio support advantage as well as hardware support advantage, that they have zero incentive to back a universal player, and seem to be on there way to a win in this so called format war.
    No amount of discounting of hd players is going to make up for the lack of studio support from MGM,Columbia Tri Star, Lions Gate, Miramax, Disney, Fox, and now Pixar imo.

    It looks as if the majority studios have picked Blu Ray for its tighter security and of course the huge Ps3 sales.

    The long term looks to favor Blu Ray by quite a bit at this point imo.
     
  2. Jim Smith

    Jim Smith Stunt Coordinator

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    Until a Pixar title is announced for the format I am not bying this as an advantage.
     
  3. Greg T

    Greg T Stunt Coordinator

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    My list of no hd studio support is lacking Sony Pictures.
    So the list should read.
    Sony Pictures
    Columbia Tri Srar
    Fox
    MGM
    Miramax
    Disney
    Lions Gate
    Pixar

    This is more half of the studios, and will be the end of hd dvd imo.
     
  4. Jim Smith

    Jim Smith Stunt Coordinator

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    Pixar isn't really a studio on the level of the others. It has only 6 freaken movies. True every single one of them has been a sucessful classic but still just six movies.
     
  5. Ken_F

    Ken_F Stunt Coordinator

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    There are still far too many variables to predict a winner.

    Aside from Sony and Fox, none of the other BD studios have any real investment or loyalty to BD. They'll take their content wherever the market is. Sony promised studios widespread availability of the PS3 starting this spring, and if the PS3 isn't out this year, or is only available in limited quantity at a high price, then the picture could change. If the $400-$500 HD-DVD players (2nd generation expected at $300-$400 this fall) really catch on, then you'll almost certainly see more studios announcing support for HD-DVD.

    It's interesting to note that each studio who signed on to Blu-ray committed to releasing just 15 titles for that format. That's right, 15 titles. In order to be a launch partner for Blu-ray, and to receive the most favorable BD pricing from Sony, a studio had to commit to releasing 15 titles for the format. Any studio that doesn't sign up for Blu-ray launch is in real trouble if that format wins, because then they will be paying more on every disk sold than their competition. In contrast, HD-DVD has no such support-us-now-or-pay-more-later provision -- it doesn't matter whether a studio announces support for the format now or later, they'll be paying the same amount.

    Disney helped to design the interactivity technology (iHD) used by HD-DVD. They sought to bring it to Blu-ray, along with Apple, Samsung, and LG, but were outvoted by supporters of Sun's BJ-Java. Disney would probably be among the first to jump ship with HD-DVD support if sales of $300-$500 HD-DVD players are good, and shipments of the PS3 are repeatedly delayed.

    Once again, it's far too early to tell how things will pan out. Only one thing is for certain -- the outcome of this debate will have a lot to do with the release, pricing, and availability of the PS3, as well as sales and adoption of $300-$500 HD-DVD players. There won't necessarily be one winner, as the Netflix CEO reiterated yesterday:


    Updated some terminology.
     
  6. Jesse Skeen

    Jesse Skeen Producer

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    The REAL question is which porn companies are bluray exclusive? [​IMG]
     
  7. FrancisP

    FrancisP Screenwriter

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    There are way too many cards to be played yet. Any one of these could turn things one way or the other. The lack of titles will not be a big factor since there will be a limited number of titles available. A number of studios refused to initially back SD and it survived. The only way it becomes an issue is if the battles goes on over 12-18 months and there are no defections. However Disney has said they are not opposed to releasing in HD-DVD if that's what the market dictates.
     
  8. Greg T

    Greg T Stunt Coordinator

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    There is only one card to be played imo...and thats the PS3, which will absolutely put more Blu Ray players in U.S. homes, than all other players from either format combined.
    Think 100 times as may = Blu Ray win.

    The studios will stick with BD because of the tighter security measures and the PS3.
     
  9. Ed St. Clair

    Ed St. Clair Producer

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    are you sure about that?
     
  10. BrettGallman

    BrettGallman Screenwriter

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    Yeah, I can't speak for the majority of people, but I can say that the DVD drive in our first computer got me on the DVD bandwagon. So we can't underestimate the impact of HD-DVD in this context.
     
  11. Greg T

    Greg T Stunt Coordinator

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    I buy from Dell...as do most....can you say BD drive[​IMG]
     
  12. Jeff(R)

    Jeff(R) Second Unit

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    Yes and let's not forget that HP (if you are into their products) will be offering Blu-ray drives as well. For computer use, if given a choice, I would go Blu-ray.

    [​IMG]
     
  13. Kyle_D

    Kyle_D Second Unit

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    The more I read about PS3, the less I'm convinced it will be the powerhouse seller some expect it to be.

    There have been reports that supposedly Sony still hasn't been able to manufacture a working unit and cost estimates range from 400-600 dollars. By the time the thing launches (next fall is what analysts are saying now), Microsoft will likely have worked out its supply shortages of the 360 and will counter the PS3 launch with a price cut. Going into the holiday season, you'll likely see a shortage of PS3s selling for, at the least, $400, while Xbox360 should be a) easier to find, b) $100 less and c) with more games available.

    Now, the majority of both PS3 and Xbox360 software is developed by third party developers who release their games for both systems. At the PS2 launch, you had gamers salivating over exclusive titles like MGS2, Final Fantasy X and Gran Turismo 3. Square is now developing for Microsoft, MGS2 was eventually ported to Xbox, meaning MGS4 might make it to 360, PGR3 and Forza Motor Sport are worthy rivals to Gran Turismo, and Microsoft has the one BIG exclusive at the moment: Halo 3.

    Add in the fact that Xbox Live smokes any online offering from Sony and you might see Sony lose the dominance they've held for the last 10 years in the next console generation.

    Will PS3 put Blu-Ray players in homes? Yes. Will it do so to the extent many here are predicting? We shall see, but I remain skeptical.
     
  14. Jason Harbaugh

    Jason Harbaugh Cinematographer

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    I think the answer to that will be completely based on how many units Sony can actually produce. If you just go by how many the PS2 sold in the 'first' day, you are looking at an instant million units. The 360 has been out for over 2 months now and MS has only managed ~600,000. I don't expect the near million sold in one day again due to the expected price, but I can see them matching what MS has sold so far in just the first launch weekend. That is, if they actually have the units manufactured. That will be the biggest hurdle for them and it is looking like it could be factor early on.

    MS will still be a player in the console world, but I seriously doubt they will overtake Sony this round.
     
  15. FrancisP

    FrancisP Screenwriter

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    Disney will likely defect if this goes on for a year or longer. Disney's CEO has said that they could go HD-DVD
    if that's what the market dictates.
     
  16. Vader

    Vader Supporting Actor

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    Derek


    In that case there was not a competing format on a rival's console...
     
  17. EricRWem

    EricRWem Screenwriter

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    Keep in mind: This is already dated information from November 30, 2005.

    I'm writing this nearly two months later.

    So just think about it: If even 25 percent of these people buy a PS3, to say nothing about more...I don't see how BR can be stopped and its adoption is virtually guaranteed at that point.

    It's a very conservative expectation to say that only 25 percent of the existing PS2 userbase would trade in towards a new PS3, especially if backwards compatibility with existing PS2 games is assured.

    This is a easy, huge, mass market adoption and a boon for Blu-Ray that virtually assures its victory.

    What does HD-DVD have to counter something like this?
     
  18. Greg T

    Greg T Stunt Coordinator

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    Nothing[​IMG]
     
  19. Kyle_D

    Kyle_D Second Unit

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    Like I said Jason, we shall see, but from what I've read and heard, Sony is expected to have an even harder time manufacturing the PS3 than Microsoft is with the 360. If Microsoft can solve their problems and have a consistent supply of units on the shelves by the back-to-school rush in July/August, they'll have a leg up on PS3 when it launches in the fall. Then, if Sony can't get PS3s on the shelves during the holiday season and Microsoft can, and at a lower price, Microsoft is just going to lengthen their lead.

    I bring this up not as a Microsoft/HD-DVD fanboy (I own all 3 current gen consoles, use a Mac, and prefer Blu-Ray), but as a skeptic. If Sony can produce sufficient units at a reasonable price, the PS3 will sell gangbusters. If they can't, Microsoft's launch lead is going to give them the heavy advantage.
     
  20. Anthony_De

    Anthony_De Agent

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    How so? The CPU is going to be produced by Toshiba, IBM, and Sony themselves. That's three different providers. Not to mention the Cell chip in the PS3 has redundancy built in to improve yields. The GPU is highly derivative of a current PC GPU that has been in production for ~8 months. It shouldn't provide too much trouble.
     

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