Apple: undefeatable!?! (1 Viewer)

[Sam Posten]

Ahead of guidance and still a miss?
http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2012/07/24Apple-Reports-Third-Quarter-Results.html

Apple® today announced financial results for its fiscal 2012 third quarter ended June 30, 2012. The Company posted quarterly revenue of $35.0 billion and quarterly net profit of $8.8 billion, or $9.32 per diluted share. These results compare to revenue of $28.6 billion and net profit of $7.3 billion, or $7.79 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin was 42.8 percent compared to 41.7 percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales accounted for 62 percent of the quarter’s revenue.
“Looking ahead to the fourth fiscal quarter, we expect revenue of about $34 billion and diluted earnings per share of about $7.65.”
The Company sold 26.0 million iPhones in the quarter, representing 28 percent unit growth over the year-ago quarter. Apple sold 17.0 million iPads during the quarter, an 84 percent unit increase over the year-ago quarter. The Company sold 4.0 million Macs during the quarter, a two percent unit increase over the year-ago quarter. Apple sold 6.8 million iPods, a 10 percent unit decline from the year-ago quarter.
Apple’s Board of Directors has declared a cash dividend of $2.65 per share of the Company’s common stock. The dividend is payable on August 16, 2012, to stockholders of record as of the close of business on August 13, 2012.

Mountain Lion releases tomorrow!
Pretty much every professional and amateur analyst shot ahead of Apple's own estimates. Apple beat the estimates but not nearly as much as they had in the past or how expected. Stock is under $600 in after hours trading. Some are calling it a buying opportunity. I don't advise one way or the other but it's a rare miss.

 

[Ronald Epstein]

Sam,

I know Mountain Lion will be released tomorrow, but where
is that officially announced?
Certainly not in what you quoted and certainly, at the time
of this post, no site has officially broken that news.

Trust me, I have been refreshing pages for the past hour.

 

[Sam Posten]

It's in the press release Ron. It's official.

“We’re thrilled with record sales of 17 million iPads in the June quarter,” said Tim Cook, Apple’s CEO. “We’ve also just updated the entire MacBook line, will release Mountain Lion tomorrow and will be launching iOS 6 this Fall. We are also really looking forward to the amazing new products we’ve got in the pipeline.”

 

[Ronald Epstein]

Okay, you didn't post the specific statement from Tim Cook
in the above quoted press release -- unless I missed something.

Anyhow, Cult of Mac just posted it officially.

 

[Sam Posten]

I only posted what I had access to at the time, I put the link up now that that is posted on Apple's own site.

 

[Sam Posten]

I think he really means it but it's going to be easy ammo for the haters.

“Our goal isn’t to make money. Our goal absolutely at Apple is not to make money. This may sound a little flippant but it’s the truth,” said the British designer, who is credited with shaping the iPad and iPhone.
“Our goal and what gets us excited is to try and make great products. We trust that if we are successful people will like them, and if we are operationally competent we will make revenue, but we are very clear about our goal.”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/apple/9438662/Apple-design-chief-Our-goal-isnt-to-make-money.html

 

[Sam Posten]

Let this one sink in for a moment:
http://www.cultofmac.com/183135/new-iphone-expected-to-sell-more-than-263-million-units-report/
Remember when people thought iPhone could never sell 10 million units in a year?

 

[Sam Posten]

Love this. Headline screams "Apple's best days are behind it".
Content: Nope, not really.
http://www.businessinsider.com/apples-best-days-are-behind-it-2012-9
Gotta love BI, such trolls. And YARROW WRITES FOR BI!

 

[Sam Posten]

Yup: http://ceklog.kindel.com/2013/02/19/why-nobody-can-copy-apple/ Yupper: http://ceklog.kindel.com/2013/02/28/businesses-buy-differently/ He really nails the difference between how Windows and Xbox get sold too. Great pieces. Going on 5 months now sans Apple announcement, the stock is slagging, cats and dogs are sleeping together! Hold on to your butts. =)

 

[Ted Todorov]

Mine and Gruber's takes on "Apple Always Loses to More Open Competitors" & "Open and Shut":
http://tedtodorov.tumblr.com/post/37340654218/apple-always-loses-to-more-open-competitors
http://daringfireball.net/2013/03/open_and_shut

 

[DaveF]

Open beats closed. Linux won the desktop Palm owns the PDA market WebOS beats Apple (though lags Google a bit) And the Gutenberg Project dominates the e-book market

 

[ChristopherG]

Are you really suggesting that closed systems are preferable to those that are more open? If so why? Honest question as it always just "seemed" to me that the more open the better...?

 

[DaveF]

That question depends a lot on your priorities, interests, and what is meant by "open". For me, I prefer products that are well designed and do what I need. Open, per se, is not a big feature. I don't run Linux for a home computer, I have a Mac (and before that, Windows). I don't drive a 1950s car that's "open" -- easier to work on, easier to self-repair, no closed computer diagnostics -- I drive a relatively modern car that's much more "closed" and requires professional tools (that I don't have) to diagnose problems. Even reading, I now opt for the closed Kindle over the "open" paperback, since the Kindle is generally much easier (especially for reading at night). But even if I preferred open, that wouldn't change the fact that the big idea of "open beats closed" seems simply wrong as a predictor. Assuming open-source code running on commodity PC parts is "open", then Linux running on user-assembled PCs should be the dominant home computer. But obviously it's not. 

 

[Hanson]

Originally Posted by Ted Todorov
Mine and Gruber's takes on "Apple Always Loses to More Open Competitors" & "Open and Shut":
http://tedtodorov.tumblr.com/post/37340654218/apple-always-loses-to-more-open-competitors
http://daringfireball.net/2013/03/open_and_shut

But Ted, Android tablets are set to overtake iOS tablets in terms of marketshare by the end of the year. If that happens, doesn't that fly in the face of your axiom?
Even if you factor out the Kindle Fire as not being "real" Android, it's still under a 5% lead in marketshare for the iPad family while the pace of Android tablet sales is higher than that of iPad. So this conclusion appears inevitable.

 

[Ted Todorov]

Originally Posted by Hanson
But Ted, Android tablets are set to overtake iOS tablets in terms of marketshare by the end of the year. If that happens, doesn't that fly in the face of your axiom?
Even if you factor out the Kindle Fire as not being "real" Android, it's still under a 5% lead in marketshare for the iPad family while the pace of Android tablet sales is higher than that of iPad. So this conclusion appears inevitable.

That may well happen. But like I said -- it will be the first time if it does. I wasn't arguing it would never happen -- I was arguing that all the "it happened before and will inevitably happen again" stuff is pure BS, because it has never happened before --- I trust you agree with that?
P.S.
No guarantees that present trends will continue though -- in the US phone market Android growth is going down while the iPhone is going up and is absolutely trouncing Android on every carrier where they compete head to head (see the Q4 reports from AT&T, Verizon and Sprint) -- once T-Mobile starts carrying the iPhone later this year (as has been announced), at least domestically Android will will have a very hard time outselling the iPhone -- something none of the recent "future trends" would have predicted.
And I strongly suspect that that 5% gap you are quoting on tablet sales is obtained by comparing iPad sales to Android "shipments" -- when you look at something like the web browsing statistics the iPad is up well above 90%, which tells me that a good portion of the Android "shipments" stay in the warehouse. Edit: googling tells me the iPad recently had a 98% Web Browsing share (ouch): http://appleinsider.com/articles/12/09/27/apple-ipad-dominates-tablet-based-web-browsing-with-98-share-report-says
I will add that my anecdotal evidence matches that: the NYC subways and airplanes I've been on are overwhelmingly populated by iPads and eInk Kindles -- other tablets are rare indeed. Nooks of various stripes are the third most common sighting.

 

[ChristopherG]

Originally Posted by DaveF
That question depends a lot on your priorities, interests, and what is meant by "open".
For me, I prefer products that are well designed and do what I need. Open, per se, is not a big feature. I don't run Linux for a home computer, I have a Mac (and before that, Windows). I don't drive a 1950s car that's "open" -- easier to work on, easier to self-repair, no closed computer diagnostics -- I drive a relatively modern car that's much more "closed" and requires professional tools (that I don't have) to diagnose problems. Even reading, I now opt for the closed Kindle over the "open" paperback, since the Kindle is generally much easier (especially for reading at night).
But even if I preferred open, that wouldn't change the fact that the big idea of "open beats closed" seems simply wrong as a predictor. Assuming open-source code running on commodity PC parts is "open", then Linux running on user-assembled PCs should be the dominant home computer. But obviously it's not.

I saw you were reading over in Hanson's thread here. That thread speaks to the underpinnings of why open, in my mind anyway, is desirable. Couple that with the idea of spending top dollar for a "well-designed" product that requires me to return it just to replace my battery....?
I like the idea that if I want to swap out a component, for whatever reason not just because the manufacturer has decided for me, that I have many choices, options and prices to choose from. I like to know how things work and why. I own a code reader for my vehicle so I can tell why the idiot light is on. I still may not be able to fix the fault but at least I know what it is.

 

[Hanson]

Originally Posted by Ted Todorov
No guarantees that present trends will continue though -- in the US phone market Android growth is going down while the iPhone is going up and is absolutely trouncing Android on every carrier where they compete head to head (see the Q4 reports from AT&T, Verizon and Sprint) -- once T-Mobile starts carrying the iPhone later this year (as has been announced), at least domestically Android will will have a very hard time outselling the iPhone -- something none of the recent "future trends" would have predicted.

The Android market is going down incrementally with Apple going up a little more than that. The gap is still too wide right now to envision Apple catching up anytime soon. The release of the iPhone 5 is boosting sales, but as the new Android flagship devices (including the GS4) come out and the stalling for the new iPhone begins, the trends will continue. Besides, comparing model to model WRT Android and iPhone isn't really germane since Apple only makes a limited number of models compared to Android.
Also, the US isn't the only smartphone market. Android trounces iPhone in the rest of the world, where iPhone market share is actually dropping.
Quote:

Originally Posted by Ted Todorov
And I strongly suspect that that 5% gap you are quoting on tablet sales is obtained by comparing iPad sales to Android "shipments" -- when you look at something like the web browsing statistics the iPad is up well above 90%, which tells me that a good portion of the Android "shipments" stay in the warehouse. Edit: googling tells me the iPad recently had a 98% Web Browsing share (ouch): http://appleinsider.com/articles/12/09/27/apple-ipad-dominates-tablet-based-web-browsing-with-98-share-report-says

You cannot continue to ship units if they aren't selling. You seem to be implying that 90% of Android tablets are languishing in warehouses. But Google counts units by Play Store activations. Those numbers are in line with widely known sales numbers.
Quote:

Originally Posted by Ted Todorov
I will add that my anecdotal evidence matches that: the NYC subways and airplanes I've been on are overwhelmingly populated by iPads and eInk Kindles -- other tablets are rare indeed. Nooks of various stripes are the third most common sighting.

I actually see Nexus 7's all the time in the same places you're looking. But more to the point, marketshare is not user base. The iPad's head start means that there are many more of them than Android tablets, but in terms of sales over quarter or year, Android is gaining ground.

 

[DaveF]

Originally Posted by ChristopherG
I saw you were reading over in Hanson's thread here. That thread speaks to the underpinnings of why open, in my mind anyway, is desirable. Couple that with the idea of spending top dollar for a "well-designed" product that requires me to return it just to replace my battery....?
I like the idea that if I want to swap out a component, for whatever reason not just because the manufacturer has decided for me, that I have many choices, options and prices to choose from. I like to know how things work and why. I own a code reader for my vehicle so I can tell why the idiot light is on. I still may not be able to fix the fault but at least I know what it is.

You can't "swap out a component" on smartphone. You can't change the screen, upgrade the processor, or change out the camera lens. You can change the battery. That seems a very narrow meaning of "open".
A user-replaceable battery isn't a big deal to me, in general. My previous two Palm PDAs (Sony Clie and Palm Zire 72) had non-replaceable batteries. I don't recall people declaiming Palm for being "closed" when they switched from AA batteries to a sealed unit. And after 2.5 years with an iPhone 4, I'm not regretting having a closed battery. I'll expect I'll replace the phone before I want to buy a new battery.
I think it's more about design choices than being "open". If you prefer the design trades around a replaceable battery, that's a factor in how you'll shop.

 

[Ted Todorov]

Originally Posted by DaveF
. And after 2.5 years with an iPhone 4, I'm not regretting having a closed battery. I'll expect I'll replace the phone before I want to buy a new battery.

I still regularly use my 2007 iPhone (HT remote/cooking timer/alarm clock) with the original battery. It's battery capacity is probably about 50% of what it used to be -- but after close to 6 years, that's not bad at all.
When the replaceable battery on our unlocked "travel" flip phone died last summer, it being replaceable did us no good whatsoever, because they had long since stopped making replaceable batteries for that model. On the other hand if I decided I wanted a new battery for my museum piece iPhone 1 tomorrow, I bet I'd have no trouble procuring it. (I bet the same applies to Androids -- try finding a replacement battery for a 6 year old Android phone.)

 

[Ted Todorov]

Originally Posted by Hanson
The Android market is going down incrementally with Apple going up a little more than that. The gap is still too wide right now to envision Apple catching up anytime soon. The release of the iPhone 5 is boosting sales, but as the new Android flagship devices (including the GS4) come out and the stalling for the new iPhone begins, the trends will continue. Besides, comparing model to model WRT Android and iPhone isn't really germane since Apple only makes a limited number of models compared to Android.
Also, the US isn't the only smartphone market. Android trounces iPhone in the rest of the world, where iPhone market share is actually dropping.

Depending on which survey you look at, iOS already surpassed Android in Q4 2012 -- see http://www.redmondpie.com/apple-maintains-market-share-lead-in-q4-2012-with-iphone-more-android-users-jumping-ship-report/
Hardly surprise considering AT&T reported a 86% iPhone share and Verizon & Spring had solid iPhone leads as well.
As for worldwide, that is all about China Mobile and their 600+ million subscribers -- if they continue to not offer the iPhone for the rest of 2013, then Android will continue to dominate -- if on the other hand they do start selling the iPhone as has been heavily rumored -- it will be oopsy-daisy time for Android's worldwide marketshare.
Source: http://www.asymco.com/2013/03/11/where-are-the-android-users/