American Idol 6 HTF Challenge: Two pools - The "Original" & the TOP TEN Challenge (1 Viewer)

[Bryan X]

No problem. It was just off the top of my head and I'm not sure it's needed either.

 

[Yee-Ming]

I suppose the other way to break ties would be, instead of the current #3 (which is perfectly sound BTW, so don't get me wrong), is that after #2, since #1 is correctly picking the outright winner (i.e. your choice of #1 is correct), is whether your choice of #2 is correct, then choice of #3 and so on until there is a divergence. By definition, the tie will be broken since no two participants in the challenge will have identical line-ups.

 

[RAF]

Actually, Yee-Ming, I really like your idea for the tie-breaker! It not only incorporates the spirit of the three tie-breakers I proposed but it does it in a most eloquent way. And, most importantly, it will always guarantee a single winner since the rules specifically state that no two lists can be identical. I'm going to amend the tie-breaker rule to read:

In the event of a tie, the member who correctly picks the top position will be declared the winner. If there is still a tie, then this process will extend to the 2nd position, the 3rd position and so on in declining order down the list until a single winner of the competition is determined.

Maybe the wording needs to be a little clearer, but I think the concept is outstanding. Thanks for the input!

 

[Bryan X]

I'm not sure it will.

In the event of a tie, it's very possible that none of the tied winners picked any of the spots exactly right (or they each picked the same 'correct ones' and only diverged on the 'missed ones'). Then what?

Maybe modify Yee-Ming's suggestion a bit in that: In the event of a tie, the winner is the one that was the fewest spots away from picking the winner. If it's still a tie, move down to #2 and see who was closest to predicting the second spot, and so on. That would guarantee a break in the tie as it wouldn't require any 'exact' predictions which is a possibility.

 

[RAF]

Interesting comment and, of course Bryan, you are absolutely right! I had totally forgotten about the chance that nobody picks any of the ten spots right on the money or that several people might have the same ones "right" and their other scores match with different people and positions.

Accordingly, I'm modifying the tie breaker rule to read as follows:

In the event of a tie the contest winner will be the entrant who was the fewest spots away from picking the winner. If it's still a tie, then we'll move down the list and determine who was closest to predicting the second spot, and so on, until the tie is eventually broken.

Nice catch!

 

[RAF]

Results updated (and spreadsheet available online).

In the Top Ten Challenge:

6 of 11 choose Gina for the nine spot so we have our first "perfect" scores of the season.

NolanJ and NYSandy lead with a total of 3 points and 6 points represents the back of the pack at this point. Scores can only go up from here, not down.

See Message #1 of this thread for full details.

 

[RAF]

NolanJ is perfect for the second week in a row and takes over sole possession of first place in the Top Ten challenge with 03 points.

On to next week....

 

[RAF]

Results updated in Message #1. Now we get down to the nitty-gritty.

 

[Aaron Silverman]

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO . . .

 

[Yee-Ming]

Hmmm... everyone bar Scott has Phil Stacey in the bottom 2 (Scott has him at 3rd from bottom). Which makes Phil's continued survival mostly a wash points-wise, since we're all going to take a big hit on Phil's placing, but with those who placed him 9th gaining a point on those of us who put him 10th (Scott will gain two)

 

[RAF]

Yes, this "Top Ten" List arrangement of the pool is quite intriguing. It places a premium on total accuracy rather than just picking the top three or four. Picking the tenth place finisher is just as important as picking the first place finisher. As Yogi Berra used to say, "It ain't over 'til it's over." Very interesting.

While there won't be a wide range between all final scores - the final score possibilities in a ten item list range between 0 (perfect) and 50 (worst case scenario) this is actually a very challenging pool.

I like it (and not just because I'm tied for the lead at the moment). What do others think?

 

[RAF]

O.K. After tonight's "twist" with nobody voted off, here's how we will handle the scoring in the Top Ten Challenge:

If they clearly indicate who's sixth and who's fifth, then scoring will be as usual. But if they present the two contestants voted off as a group of two with no distinction between the sixth place finisher and the fifth place finisher then I'll assign 5.5 points to each of the two who leave to determine the scoring.

Sound like a plan?

 

[NolanJ]

way to put a crimp in our game Idol ... sheesh... no elemination week

 

[RAF]

That was really a lousy thing to do to Jordin. For a couple of seconds there (which probably felt like an eternity to her) she thought she was a goner. After the reveal she probably thought she was on "The Amazing Race."


Just another example of how the AI folks treat their contestants like fodder (as do most "elimination" shows). All this, "We'll tell you after the break" stuff and drawing things out while the contestants twist in the wind is really one of the major blots on these shows. ("Dancing With the Stars" has made this practice practically an art form). That's why I no longer watch "results" shows live but do the DVR "Zip-Zip" to cut to the chase.

And the AI producers probably didn't do this for maximum shock effect - knowing that it was a non-elimination week. If they really wanted to have maximum shock effect they would have made Melinda Doolittle the foil. Now that would have been an effective shocker.

Oh, well. On to next week.

 

[Aaron Silverman]

5.5 sounds like a plan!

The dragging out of results is just plain annoying at this point. It was cute at first, but it's become so rote that it just doesn't add any excitement any more.

I liked a few weeks ago when Ryan Seacrest said something like "normally we'd reveal this after the break, but I'm going to do it now." More of that, please!

 

[Yee-Ming]

I'd agree, 5.5, if necessary, is a good way to deal with the issue. I assume that bottom next week would be considered 6th, whilst second from bottom is 5th?

Using Melinda as the prospective shock elimination wouldn't have worked, I think -- it's too obvious that she's the favourite. Jordin was a dark horse, now possibly second-favourite, making it more likely. Lakisha actually would've been even more plausible since she's faded the past few weeks, but perhaps that's why she wasn't chosen, as it wouldn't have been "shocking" enough. Any of the guys, though, and no one would've really been shocked at all.

 

[RAF]

The results have been updated after tonight's (05/02/07) show. In the "original" pool, nobody has the top four right but many have three contestants alive (no big surprise here). In the "Top Ten" contest, I hold a very slim lead (1 point) over NolanJ with Patrick Sun and NYSandy tied for 3rd.

One question: I'm assuming that Phil and Chris R. were eliminated as an entry, so I've assigned their positions 5.5 points (the average of 5th and 6th place). Does anyone have any evidence that Phil actually came in 6th and Chris R. came in fifth (other than the fact that Phil was announced first? i.e., was any announcement made during the show that Phil had the lowest vote total? I might have missed this and, if I did, I'll adjust the scores accordingly. Right now I entered them both as "5.5".

Thanks for any information you can offer.

On to next week....

 

[Aaron Silverman]

Interesting that only two people don't have the Final Four (in the Top Ten Challenge), and those people are only off by 1 person each (Chris and Sanjaya, both instead of Lakisha).

 

[Yee-Ming]

I'd take the view there is no evidence Phil was 6th and Chris was 5th, apart from Phil going first. Since there's no precedent for a double-elimination on AI, I don't think we can necessarily read anything into it.

Having said that, if I figure this correctly, it only makes a difference to RAF (ironically!) and Anthony C, in that they both placed Chris R higher than 5.5, whereas everyone else had both Phil and Chris below 5.5 -- with the rest of us, it doesn't make any difference what position the two finished at since it would be a wash, but for RAF and AC, placing Chris at 5 and Phil at 6 improves their position by one point, since for each singer they are now off by half a point less, for a net gain of one.

And I've also figured that I cannot win this now -- I am five points behind RAF, and my final four selection is exactly the same as his, so regardless of how they place, I will remain exactly 5 behind RAF. Oh well...

 

[RAF]

Like I said before, it is just as important to pick the tenth place finisher as it is to pick the first place finisher in this contest (which is why I like it better than the "old" top four method). And now that we are left with the top four if you have all four people left I believe the worst you can do is pick up 8 more points if your 1st place choice ends up fourth, your fourth place choice ends up 1st, etc. (Several other scenarios also give one 8 points - you get the idea). Accordingly, with a lot of duplicate choices several other HTF members are probably now also eliminated from the competition (like you pointed out for yourself) but rather than going through all the combinations and permutations I'll let it play out for itself.

The Top Ten Challenge is quite intriguing. I hope to offer it again for future events (the next AI, Big Brother, maybe Survivor, The Amazing Race, etc.) It's pretty cut and dry (except for the double elimination that just occurred on AI.) I'd also have to give some thought about things like Big Brother where sometimes a house member is re-admitted to the game. This would shuffle the order a bit, but there still would be a final order of finish. I'm sure we can roll with the punch.

This season's AI was quite predictable (at least for the top four or so). It would be interesting with a show like survivor if there were 20 contestants and we made all HTF folks submit their top ten lists prior to the first show. It would be quite a challenge to nail the final ten, not to mention the order of finish - and then you would see a much greater spread in the scores. Imagine picking someone for #1 and they finished 20th. That's 19 points right there!

Thoughts?