Exactly. On another message board I summed up the future of studio release strategy as follows:
- New films will still be released on DVD as they have been the last several years, with all except the more indie, low distribution films also getting a BD release. Even that will become less and less common as time goes on and the BD market grows.
- The "evergreen" titles - the Gone with the Winds and Ben-Hurs - will get new releases on BD. If the previous DVDs are not up to snuff and the title is big enough it will get a new DVD release as well. This has already happened with the likes of Blade Runner and An American in Paris.
- Some "evergreen" catalog titles that have already made it to DVD will eventually get the BD release they need, but may have a concurrent new Special Edition DVD release passed up to entice people to move to the BD format. This has already happened with such titles as The Pelican Brief, and seems to be happening with the upcoming BD of Grumpy Old Men. Both titles had early DVD releases (1997-98) that are very poor releases by today's standard, but they will/may not be getting a new DVD release - only BD.
- The handful of A-list catalog titles that haven't seen a DVD release even at this stage of the format will have the red carpet treatment on both formats when the moment finally comes. However, the only title I can even think of that qualifies is The African Queen. Honestly, is there any other no-brainer title that isn't already available? (EDIT: I thought of The Magnificent Ambersons, and even then it might be hard to argue it's a A release and not a B).
- Of the remaining unreleased catalog titles, perhaps up to 10% will see a traditional release on DVD, with probably only a handful getting a BD release until much later in the format's lifespan. These will mostly be titles that are easier to promote with some theme or new-release tie in - horror cult films, for example, which no matter how small the title always find a buying audience.
- The remaining 90% of catalog titles will be available only through the on demand business model, primarily because they are only cost effective to make available if made when the order is received.
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In retrospect, my 10/90 ratio of DVD/DVD on Demand may be off, but overall I'd say I'm still confident in my analysis.