A Blue Christmas for Blu-ray (1 Viewer)

[Chris S]

An interesting market report from Cymfony, titled "A Blue Christmas for Blu-ray", was released today which took a look at online boards, blogs, etc. and came out with some very interesting figures. Granted this is just online opinion and only one report but I think it does show that BD does still have some work to do in order to build more early adopter support.


HighDefDigest Article
HomeMediaRetailing Article
Original Cymfony market report (PDF)


Edit: The title of this thread comes from the title of the Cymfony report and not a desire to escalate the temperatures of BD supporters.

 

[AaronSCH]

The chickens come home to roost.

 

[BrettB]

Has anyone seen my rubber boots?

 

[Chris S]

Yea I'm not sure what all of this actually means other than it shows some trending of internet posts. Now do post numbers really mean anything? I don't know. But for once there are some actual figures to discuss and not just conjecture. The sampling was taken from October 1st - November 23rd (only 6 days after the PS3 launch). I'd be curious to see how the trends change, provided they do change, over the December - January time frame.

 

[Chris S]

O'yea and I want to point out that the title of this thread comes from the title of the Cymfony report and not a desire to escalate the temperatures of BD supporters/owners (of which I am a member). I'll edit the original post to make this distinction.

 

[Neil Joseph]

All of this could turn around if they (BR) would only just stop holding back their top titles especially those from Fox and Disney/Pixar.

 

[Shawn Perron]

The problem could be that they just won't sell certain titles while there is a 20k-30k ceiling on the sales. I can't say that it'd make much financial sense to release the big guns at this point. Those same marketing dollars will go 10x as far later on in the growth of the format.

 

[Kyle_D]

Most of Blu-ray's problems online have to do with the popular perception that it's Sony's format. I don't think it should be too controversial to say that the company has had a fairly disastrous year PR-wise. Blu-ray's industry backers put all their eggs in PS3's basket, and that strategy just isn't working at the moment since PS3 is suffering a pretty major backlash in the media and among gamers right now.

There's no doubt that Blu-ray is a very capable format, and it's silly to count it down and out just yet. Conditions in this format war can change in an instant. 'The format has a bad stigma about it right now, and it's going to take a major onslaught of widespread industry support, less expensive players, and AAA titles to overcome. We should see that by next summer. For the moment though, I think Blu-ray has given HD-DVD enough lead time and leverage that it's inevitable we'll evenutally see combo players. I mean, heck, my newer DVD players even support Divx (and I'm not confusing it with the codec), and Divx never had the leverage HD-DVD has now.

 

[Tim Glover]

All those figures are nice and being a HD-DVD adopter it looks promising....BUT remember, Sony and others (BIG manufacturers, and studios) have put alot of backing into Blu-Ray. They won't go away without a strong fight. Sure, they'll keep watching how it's all playing out and will certainly change positions to make money.

But it's far from over. I think we'll know more after CES. Rumors of more Hardware manufacturers for HD-DVD will help solidify their hold.

As Neil said, there are so many titles from Fox & Disney that could make alot of us even change our stance. Right now I counted about 3-4 titles that are either out now or coming out on BD that I want. Not a big # for sure....but it could and probably will change.

 

[Neil Joseph]

The studios that are exclusive to the format SHOULD be releasing product that would maximize the success of the format rather than dipping their toes intot he swimming pool so-to-speak. What other methods will they use to try to lure consumers to a new format if the existing approach is not up to expectations?

 

[Shane Martin]

Maybe they don't care who wins. They are just siding with the one they think will win. Just like the Divx vs DVD war, some sided with Divx and quickly switched sides.

Given the irony that Divx had Circuit City and Fox backing it and BR is being backed by both is interesting but may mean nothing.

Still I think the studios are only about making money. They don't want to be losing too much money on a format that might die. They are just trying to dip their toes in and see where the wind is blowing. That's where they'll go. Studios follow the money plain and simple.

The only one that doesn't in this format war is Columbia since they are tied to the parent company of the largest BR backer there.

 

[ppltd]

I agree that the manufacturers have a great deal of money in research and development to lose, but the Studios could decide to commit to both formats with little or no added costs, just added revenue.

Seems like a no-brainer.

 

[dpippel]

Actually, all of this might turn around if consumers could actually purchase a Blu-ray player for less than $800. Title availability doesn't mean much if people aren't buying the hardware to view the software, and the Blu-ray camp just doesn't seem to get it. THE PLAYERS COST TOO MUCH. It's simple economics.

 

[Rachael B]

I'm with Tim, CES will tell a tale. If a couple of popular manufacturers of decks jump on HD-DVD it could spell the beginning of the end of Blu...? Give me a really sharp HD-DVD player and that format might just win all my affections...?

I like my Panasonic alot and Blu has alot of potential but the format is a rudderless ship. How can Fox think it's the least bit wise to ask $40, list, a shot for a struggling 2nd place format? Does Fox think they can win by showing up? ...ditto for Sony and their on-going quest to impose MPEG2.

If Blu gets it's excrement together, I wouldn't mind them winning....but it isn't gonna happen at today's prices, IMO. For now, I have no firm format alligiance. I stille like HD-DVD software better and Blu players better.....I'm like a fish with two hooks in it's mouth.....

 

[Tim Glover]

....really we're all being dangled here to some degree. The strange thing is that most of us really are die hard movie buffs. Why else are we here? The techie talk stuff is great and informative for sure....but the passion behind all that is our love for film. Period. Time has shown we consumers are patient, and will buy our beloved classics in each and every format. There seems to be so much money to be made on the software end...you would think these companies would be busting their butts to get affordable hardware out there.

Not only do we buy these films, more than likely we'll rebuy for a "better" special edition with more "bonus" sh_t.

...

All this delay will ultimately hurt the studios and hardware manufacturers.

Sorry for the slang, but as we used to say growing up in Louisiana, either shit or get off the pot.

 

[Andrew Bunk]

I've got both formats now, but I continue to buy all my WB and Paramount movies on HD DVD, since they all have at least DD+, and TrueHD in some cases. This is one thing that will definitely keep hurting BR IMO. The only WB's I might get on Blu in the future would be ones where the HD DVD is a combo and higher priced, and I don't think the audio would make a difference, like a drama or something.

I agree Fox needs to get some more A-list stuff out. Why not finish off the X-Men trilogy? How about some Alien movies? EVen stuff like Moulin Rouge would really shine.

I am glad they're giving us stuff like Rising Sun and Commando, since these movies have languished in non-anamorphic hell for years. Hopefully that will equal True Lies in the near future.

 

[Larry Sutliff]

I'm actually selling my Sammy BD player to help finance a front projector. I'm not giving up on BD, when I'm flush again, I'll buy another player, or perhaps the PS3. But, the thing is, I don't think I could ever sell my HD DVD player unless I knew I would have another one within a week or two. I have a lot more movies on HD DVD that I like, plus it's a wonderful upconverter. I think I have like three or four titles on BD that I actually care about, and I can live without them for the next few months(and nothing has been announced exclusively for BD in the next few months that I must have).

Disney and Fox need to announce great day and date releases, plus tremendous catalog titles. Paramount, WB and Universal have been releasing films that I think people want to buy. The BD exclusive studios need to start doing the same thing.

 

[Grant H]

Has Toshiba changed the price or isn't their first 1080p player around $1,000, the SAME as the 1080p Blu-ray players have been?

I can't say it would have been a bad idea to release some $500 1080i Blu-ray players for the 1080i (no 1080p) crowd, but Blu-ray made the 1080p a big part of their advertising campaign, for better or for worse.

As far as titles, as always, the format is at the mercy of the studios.

 

[JohnPhi]

Bill Hunt from the bits has posted his thoughts on this report and I agree. He also hints that next year we may see Bond, ID4 and Alien on BD. That could really changed the format war. Anyway, here is his post


Removed by moderator. Don't copy copyrighted texts verbatim, not even from friendly sister forums!

 

[AaronSCH]

Independence Day ...now there's a title that hasn't had enough releases on DVD. Although I must admit that Star Wars and Alien could convince me to add a Blu-ray player when they are under $200.

I enjoy reading The Digital Bits and I respect Bill Hunt's point-of-view but c'mon Bill, HD DVD really didn't have that much of a lead in the marketplace and it has beaten Blu-ray consistently on a number of levels. Yes, this is a horse race and HD DVD got out of the gate first but it's time to put that excuse to rest.

Samsung bungled the release of its first player and Sony bungled the launch of the most overly hyped gaming system in electronics history. Sony and Blu-ray's supporting players knew what was at stake and they all failed miserably because they thought they had the cards stacked in their favor and didn't see HD DVD as a real threat. They acted with pure arrogance. The only reason they are being motivated to truly serve the interests of the consumer now is the competition.

I certainly won't forget that had the situation been reversed and Blu-ray was out in front, everyone would have turned "Blu," writing off HD DVD as an unfortunate mistake. And a couple of the most vocal Blu-ray supporters among us would be spewing anti HD DVD venom all over these threads. However, the success of HD DVD has humbled many and changed some minds.

Toshiba has delivered on promises without nearly the hype. I cannot think of another company that has had such attentive customer service. Bravo, Toshiba! So stop making excuses for the format that had all the advantages at the start and applaud the underdogs for getting it right most of the time.

I eagerly await the announcements from CES with high hopes that Microsoft, HP and Toshiba will not forfeit a substantial lead in winning over the hearts, minds and wallets of the home theater faithful.

Please refrain from quoting me out-of-context to serve your particular point-of-view