2011 at the Box Office

Discussion in 'Movies' started by TerryRL, Jan 1, 2011.

  1. TravisR

    TravisR Studio Mogul

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    Eventhough Green Hornet doesn't look good, I'll definitely see it because it's a superhero movie by way of Michel Gondry.


    Other than that, I'm still waiting for Rabbit Hole, Blue Valentine and Somewhere.
     
  2. mattCR

    mattCR Executive Producer
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    Rabbit Hole is exceptional. The direction is dead on for what I would want from a film like this.
     
  3. Brook K

    Brook K Lead Actor

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    I really don't keep up with movies anymore so I don't know what many of these are. Had no idea Malick had a new movie coming out. I'll definitely see that, especially if he's the one directing the Footloose remake


    Is Rise of the Apes another attempt at a new Planet of the Apes movie?


    Green Hornet looks like it could be funny and a good time to me. My 9-year old really wants to see it, though the party scenes at the beginning have me wondering how appropriate it will be. The orignal show was out of the same cheeseball mold as the Batman TV show wasn't it? This looks like something along those lines.


    I thought Red Riding Hood looked like it could be very good. I would think it or Rango would be the top movie in March over Battle: Los Angeles. But I have no idea what BLA is.


    I'm interested in the Hugo Cabret movie. It was a pretty popular kid's book too though not on the level of Diary of a Wimpy Kid. My daughter's class all did projects on it last year and they did a play based on the book. Wondering how they are going to translate it to the screen. It's a pretty unique book with lots of strong, b&w artwork that gets pretty surreal at times and the writing is often very minimal. The artwork tells a lot of the story.
     
  4. TerryRL

    TerryRL Producer

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    http://www.deadline.com/2011/01/rough-friday-openings-green-hornet-down-dilemma-disastrous/


    FRIDAY PM: Sources tell me this was a rough Friday at the box office for two new major studio tentpoles opening on a long Martin Luther King 4-day holiday. Fuller analysis coming:


    1. The Green Hornet 3D (Sony Pictures) NEW [3,584 Theaters]
    Friday $10.5M
    Estimated3-Day Weekend $30M, Estimated 4-Day Holiday $35M

    Given how well this legendary action duo -- Britt Reid (Seth Rogen) and his resourceful Kato (Taiwanese pop singer Jay Chou) and their cooly-equipped The Black Beauty -- were tracking for weeks now, rival studios are emailing me tonight that The Green Hornet is surprisingly underperforming. I'd say it's so-so given the higher 3D ticket prices and on the lower side of Sony Pictures' expectations. ("Once again, tracking overestimated this genre," a studio exec messages me in a veiled reference to the lackluster performance of Kick-Ass. But that pic was R-rated and The Green Hornet is PG-13.) Then we also have to take into account the $150M production cost: blame reshoots and the release delay from December 22nd to January 14th so Sony could give the flick a 3D makeover. All week, rival studios were telling me they thought Sony missed a Xmas opportunity to clean up at the box office. Green Hornet earned a "B+" CinemaScore overall but an "A-" among audience members under age 25. Post-midnight screenings were light -- $550K on 700 plays -- but that's because Sony didn't push them. I hear things could have been worse box office-wise tonight but the West Coast is "pushing it way up" with late shows. "Everybody agrees we will be up tomorrow and should benefit all weekend long from a young audience," a Sony exec reassures. "Whatever it is, tonight figures to be 3.5 times or more for the 4 days -- so high $30sM at least." So let's not judge this movie prematurely.


    2. The Dilemma (Universal Pictures) NEW [2,941 Theaters] B
    Friday $5.5M
    Estimated 3-day Weekend $16.5M, Estimated 4-day Holiday $19.5M

    Some studios think tonight's take could be $6M with a shot at $20M for the long holiday weekend. But that's still shockingly soft for a Ron Howard-directed movie starring proven box office strongmen Vince Vaughn and Kevin James whose last four comedies were megahits (4 Christmases, Couples Retreat, Paul Blart: Mall Cop, and Grown-Ups). "Somehow putting them together gets you half that," one studio exec emails me tonight. The Dilemma was Universal Pictures chief Adam Fogelson's first release of his greenlit movie, but seriously what Big Media mogul would not have greenlight that talent combination, right? (Although Ron Howard should have deleted that offensive gay slur scene which was cut out of the trailer after protests.) The pic's CinemaScore was a "B". Given that this film's production budget was $70 million, Dilemma has a long way to go but Universal tonight emailed me tha it's "performing at or slightly above tracking" which was forecasting only high teens. That's soft for the pic's respective cost and a disaster for the reputations of Howard, Vaughn, and James. The disconnect, insiders tell me, was the subject matter. "The subject of infidelity is a really challenging one," one exec explained to me. "At a tie when people are looking for wish fulfillment, this may be too painful." Other insiders are complaining that "this pic was meant to be a comedy with some drama, and it turned out to be a drama with some comedy".


    3. True Grit (Paramount) Week 4 [3,459 Theaters]
    Friday $3.2M
    Estimated 3-Day Weekend $11M, Estimated 4-Day Holiday $13M, Estimated Cume $128.5M

    Wow, the Coen Brothers' Western just keeps going and going as it rides to awards wins.


    4. The King's Speech (The Weinstein Co) Week 8 [1,543 Theaters]
    Friday $2.5M
    Estimated 3-Day Weekend $9M, Estimated 4-Day Holiday $11M, Estimated Cume $46.5M

    This Oscar-touted film doubled its screen count this weekend.


    5. Black Swan (Fox Searchlight) Week 7 [2,328 Theaters]
    Friday $2.2M
    Estimated 3-Day Weekend $6.5M, Estimated 4-day Holiday $9M, Estimated Cume $73.8M

    This is a big expansion for this awards-praised pic, adding 750 locations.


    6. Little Fockers (Universal) Week 4 [3,394 Theaters]
    Friday $2.1M
    Estimated 3-Day Weekend, Estimated 4-Day Holiday $8.5M, Estimated Cume $135.5M


    7. The Fighter (Relativity/Paramount) Week 4 [2,414 Theaters]
    Friday $1.5M
    Estimated 3-Day Weekend, Estimated 4-Day Holiday $6M, Estimated Cume $67M


    8. Season Of The Witch (Relativity) Week 2 [2,827 Theaters]
    Friday $1.4M (-64%)
    Estimated 3-Day Weekend, Estimated 4-Day Holiday $5.5M, Estimated Cume $19M


    9. Tron: Legacy 3D (Disney) Week 5 [2,439 Theaters]
    Friday $1.2M
    Estimated 3-Day Weekend, Estimated 4-Day Holiday $5.5M, Estimated Cume $156.7M


    10. Yogi Bear 3D (Warner Bros) Week 5 [2,702 Theaters]
    Friday $1.1M
    Estimated 3-Day Weekend, Estimated 4-Day Holiday $7M, Estimated Cume $83.7M


    ---Nikki Finke
     
  5. Malcolm R

    Malcolm R Executive Producer

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    GH was "maybe" for me, until I saw the trailer where the leads are singing along to "Gangsta's Paradise." Then I saw how ridiculous the film is and no longer care about seeing it. Also, I don't think it was a genius move to cast the chubby schlub from "Knocked Up" as the hero.
     
  6. TravisR

    TravisR Studio Mogul

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    The Green Hornet is a comedic action movie and not a straight action movie so having Rogen as the somewhat well-intentioned but bumbling hero makes sense. That being said, anyone who wants the TV show probably should stay away because it's not that and since the show has already been made, I'm glad someone tried a different take rather than copying the original.
     
  7. TerryRL

    TerryRL Producer

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    From the Box Office Mojo site...


    http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3071&p=.htm


    The January box office tallied $754 million, which paled compared to January 2010's record $1.06 billion gross. The January-to-January drop was the steepest on the books at 29 percent, and the gross was the lowest since 2007.

    In terms of estimated attendance, January 2011 posted a 20-year low, and not by some slim margin. The month's ticket sales were optimistically estimated at 94 million, and one has to go back to 1995 to find another sub-100-million January.

    January's anemic business was a by-product of 2010's whimpering end, but it was also due to the lowest number of new nationwide releases since 1995: there were only nine, compared to an average of 14 per January over the previous 15 years. When the movies aren't broadly appealing or aren't even there, business suffers.

    For the first time in decades, the top-grossing movie in January was one originally released in January: The Green Hornet led the month with $79.1 million. The month is usually topped by a holdover from the previous year, and True Grit came close to keeping the streak alive with $78.4 million. Little Fockers was third with $60.3 million, while The King's Speech ($55.4 million) and Black Swan ($50.3 million) rounded out the Top Five.

    Individually, Green Hornet fared well for a superhero comedy, while True Grit, The King's Speech and Black Swan were gangbusters for their respective genres (all seemingly enhanced by the lack of competition for screens and attention), but, collectively, their appeal was inherently limited. Hollywood failed to deliver the broadly-appealing entertainments that keep overall business booming. An extreme example of the industry scoring on this front was last January, when Avatar dominated with $312.1 million, followed by Sherlock Holmes and Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel.---Brandon Gray


    Ouch.
     
  8. JediFonger

    JediFonger Producer

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    hi all, been away for a while =P (since late 2010).


    if this downward trend keeps up, does this mean that theaters will start shutting down? i'm kind of hoping for it because it means the few remaining ones will actually start investing $ in fixing up torn screens and blown speakers!!!!!!!! lolz.
     
  9. Malcolm R

    Malcolm R Executive Producer

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    Business cannot be too bad. One of the theaters here has just finished a new addition for two additional screens, replaced the sound systems and projectors (digital) in all 8 of the existing auds, and are adding larger screens to some of the existing auds, as well.
     
  10. TerryRL

    TerryRL Producer

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    After three lackluster months at the box office, resulting in the lowest year-to-date grosses for the studios since the late 1990s, business picked up this weekend as "Hop" unexpectedly earned the biggest opening thus far of the year. The film tallied more than $38 million of the top 12's $115.8 million haul, which ranks as April's fifth biggest opening mark behind "Fast & Furious" ($71.0 million), "Clash of the Titans" ($61.2 million), "Anger Management" ($42.2 million), and "Scary Movie 4" ($40.2 million). The near $116 million top 12 haul is the third biggest opening weekend mark ever for the month of April, ranking overall as April's fifth best earning weekend in history. With a (hopefully) strong slate of releases this month, the studios are hopeful that business will be on track before the start of the summer season next month.
     
  11. Malcolm R

    Malcolm R Executive Producer

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    They'd better have fingers, toes, and everything else crossed, as I don't see much other than "Hop," "Scream 4," and "Fast Five" that should attract much business. Maybe "Madea," too. TP movies are generally good for about $60 million in grosses.
     
  12. TerryRL

    TerryRL Producer

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    The industry is hoping films like "Arthur", "Hanna", "Rio", and "Water for Elephants" earn bigger-than-expected returns. If none of these films perform strongly, than the pressure will be on "Hop", 'Madea', "Scream 4", and "Fast Five" to tally major league grosses to keep the first third of the year from going down as the worst attended frame the industry has seen in more than ten years.


    While grosses are down significantly, it doesn't compare to how bad the overall attendance has been. With ticket prices averaging well over $8 bucks (the highest point in history), there are rumblings that even a strong summer and fall season may not be enough to save this year from besting 2010 as the worst attended year the box office has seen since the mid-1990s.

    Things are pretty bad, but the studios have yet to press the panic button yet.
     
  13. Adam_S

    Adam_S Producer

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    and last year was even inflated by the brief 3d craze ("3d is amazing!") created by Avatar which was promptly exploited and killed by Alice ("3d is dark and makes my eyes hurt!").
     
  14. TerryRL

    TerryRL Producer

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    I completely agree with you, sadly the rest of the industry doesn't. Studios exploit 3D for one reason and one reason alone, it's an excuse to bump up ticket prices. Most every major release this year (action, FX laden, CG animated, etc.) will be presented in 3D. This will be the case for the foreseeable future I'm afraid. Sadly some films may only be presented in 3D during their theatrical runs, although this is something I'm hoping studio execs rethink.
     
  15. Jesse Skeen

    Jesse Skeen Producer

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    I'm sure I've said this before, but it bears repeating: I LOVE 3-D and would have gone to see EVERY 3-D movie released, even the bad ones, IF they HADN'T charged extra for them (regular theater prices are high enough). Since they are charging extra, I've seen exactly 2 3-D movies since the revival.
     
  16. Malcolm R

    Malcolm R Executive Producer

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    I've only seen 3 or 4, and am very hesitant to pay the premium due to poor 3D conversions. Of those I have seen, I think the only two that were worthy of the format were "Monsters vs. Aliens" (which wasn't a great movie, but had good 3D effects) and "Avatar."


    For any future 3D releases, I'll wait for the reviews to see if it's worth the extra money. If not, I'll seek out a 2D version or wait for the Redbox rental if there is not a 2D option.


    The studios seem to be in a race to the bottom to see who can have the smallest opening weekend gross for a 3D feature.
     
  17. Adam Lenhardt

    Adam Lenhardt Executive Producer

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    I will only go see 3D movies if they were shot in 3D (live action) or rendered in 3D (CG animation). And even then I begrudge the premium price. I'm really hoping one of the local theaters offers Harry Potter and the Dealthy Hallows, Part 2 in 2D, because the faux-3D really pulls me out of the story.
     
  18. Adam_S

    Adam_S Producer

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    Harry Potter part1 was wonderful in Imax, it's a shame it will be impossible to see part 2 in flat imax as well.


    I really like 3D when it is well done, so there is usually one or two titles a year I will see 3D. I didn't think 3d added anything to Tangled or Toy Story. Tron was excellent and Alice was absolutely horrific, a miserable awful and vile experience in the theatre (and I was at arclight). Tim Burton and 3D don't mix. It was ten months before I paid for 3D again (saw Toy Story free). And I wish Alice hadn't turned me off so completely to 3D because I missed the amazing How to Train Your Dragon, a terrific film I bet was even more spectacular in 3D.
     
  19. Malcolm R

    Malcolm R Executive Producer

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    I saw HTTYD in 3D and while I LOVED the film, I didn't think 3D really added much (similar to how I felt about "Alice..."). I recall being disappointed because Dreamworks' previous "Monsters vs. Aliens" had some great 3D.
     
  20. Brandon Conway

    Brandon Conway captveg

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    Of course, the main problem this year has been that there haven't been any films I've been interested in seeing in a theater. The last movie I saw in the Theater was The King's Speech in early February. That's gonna change soon, because I do want to see the following:


    5/20 - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides

    5/26 - The Hangover Part II

    5/27 - The Tree of Life

    6/3 - X-Men: First Class

    6/10 - Super 8

    6/17 - Green Lantern

    7/15 - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part II

    7/22 - Captain America: The First Avenger

    7/29 - Cowboys & Aliens

    10/14 - The Thing

    11/23 - Hugo Cabret

    11/23 - The Muppets

    12/16 - Mission: Impossible: Ghost Protocol

    12/16 - Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows

    12/28 - War Horse

    TBD - J. Edgar
     

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