2008 at the Box Office (1 Viewer)

[JediFonger]

aren't most movie studios 'public' and therefore has to disclose info to SEC anyways? if so, wouldn't the admissions # basically be on their quarterlies or annual reports?

i like to know more about admission vs. dollar. i mean just look @price of gas and the value of the dollar. 100million box office just isn't the same as 100million 10 years ago, etc.

 

[TerryRL]

They are public companies and admissions are reported, but as a whole and not indivisually. For example Fox will report they sold 300 million admissions for a quarter, but won't show specific breakdowns of where the admissions went, instead focusing on the dollar amounts, which is all anyone really cares about to begin with (i.e. the "bottom line").

The biggest difference with the industry now as compared to the '70s, '80s, and most of the '90s is that the studios now have so many ways to make money thanks in large part to DVD and the international market. Plus, $100 million grosses used to be somewhat rare. Hell, movies earning over $50 million were rare. We've gone from 5-10 $100 million a year to 20-30.

The main reason studios don't like dealing with the admissions vs. inflation question is that they'd actually have to address falling ticket sales. Ticket sales hit a modern day high in 2002 (selling just over 1.6 billion admissions) and have been falling ever since. Last year saw ticket sales increase over the previous year and the same is expected to be the case for this year which has picked up its blistering January-thru-February pace after slower than expected business in late March and all of April.

Studios only heavily publicize ticket counts when the news is good. While the industry suffered through lackluster ticket sales in '05 and '06, by the end of the year, the last 8 years will have produced higher admission tallies than all of the '90s.

Total Ticket Sales for the 1980s
11.170 billion

Total Ticket Sales for the 1990s
13.032 billion

Total Ticket Sales for the 2000s (2000-thru-2007)
11.802 billion

When 2009 comes to an end, many expect total ticket sales to be in the neighborhood of 15 billion admissions for the 10 year period, which would mark the best decade of business the industry has enjoyed since the early 1950s (before television dominated the landscape and moviegoers opted to start staying home).

Even in saying all of that, the studios only want to focus on the dollar figures.

Total Box Office Sales of the 1980s
$38.236 billion

Total Box Office Sales of the 1990s
$57.415 billion

Total Box Office Sales of the 2000s (2000-thru-2007)
$71.558 billion

See? The box office numbers are "prettier" and a lot more gaudy. Everything studio execs love. By the end of 2009, many predict that the total box office figure for the decade will be nearly $92 billion. Add in foreign box office totals and revenue from the DVD market (along with other merchandise sales), and the studios are looking a decade where they earned close to $350 billion (a rough estimate).

 

[JediFonger]

that's almost as bad as 'cooking the books'. the SEC should be fining them for that .

i know they're all driven by shareholders, but still. 2000's will be a growth decade DESPITE video games (GTA4 any1?), web, etc.

looks like the 90's grew 16% over the 80's and 2000's is on track to be 15% over the 90's based on admissions. the 70's would be a bad outlier i would imagine . it's probably the worse decade along with 1950s and pre 1920s, but i know we dont have sufficient data to make those assumptions... still i make it . it will be interesting to see what 2010's will look like for theatrical releases. we all know home video will hold steady and probably grow.

 

[Chuck Mayer]

And that's not counting the half a trillion dollars they have lost from piracy Just ask them about it (thief)!

 

[TerryRL]

From the Hollywood Elsewhere site...
"The big tracking news of the day is that Will Smith's Hancock, which doesn't open for another two weeks and six days weeks, is 76 general awareness 47 definite interest and 11first choice. That's a very strong number.

The Incredible Hulk is at 98, 36 and 21 -- the weekend's sure winner due to the under-25 males. M. Night's The Happening is running at 76, 39 and 19 -- figure a weekend gross in the low 20 million range. Older women are at 25 first choice on this puppy. Get Smart, out next weekend, is at 85, 35 and 8 -- not bad. But Mike Myers' The Love Guru is running at 84, 24 and 4...bomb."- Jeffrey Wells

"Hancock" is looking really good right now and should have a major league opening over the Independence Day session ("Big Willie Weekend"), while this weekend should see 'Hulk' have very little difficulty taking the top spot. Look for KFP to have a very solid sophomore performance with "The Happening" and 'Zohan' battling it out for the #3 slot.

"Get Smart" is looking like it'll take the top spot next weekend, while "The Love Guru" is struggling to generate interest. Next weekend is going to be very interesting.

 

[Malcolm R]

Sounds like a similar start as the "Austin Powers" franchise. Small gross, limited interest in the first film until the DVD, then the sequels are huge.

 

[Douglas Monce]

Terry,

Just out of curiosity, any idea what the ticket sales numbers were for 1947 which my understanding is that was the all time high water mark? It would be interesting to contrast that number with today.

Doug

 

[Douglas Monce]

I think even with the fall off of movie going, the 1950s would probably still outstrip anything after about 1965.

Doug

 

[TerryRL]

I believe 1947 saw more than 4 billion tickets sold during the calendar year, but don't quote me on that.

 

[Pete-D]

I don't really buy that ticket sales are falling.

They surged in 2002/03/04 because those years had an extremely strong slate of movies (and some big surprises too, like Shrek 2 and Passion), but for the most part ticket sales are higher now than they were in the 80s or 90s.

The difference is people won't go see the same movie 3/4/5 times any more like they used to, the box office is more spread out and front loaded because there's a new "event" picture released practically every weekend now.

As long as ticket admissions stay above the level of the 80s/early 90s, I think the movie business is very healthy. You have to factor in foreign box office these days is much higher than the 80s and 90s to boot and then you have the whole DVD issue on top of that.

 

[TerryRL]

The movie business is more healthy now than they ever have been, despite what studio execs say. As I stated before, its actually becoming a challenge to produce a financial disaster. It still happens of course, but today most studios can survive a major league flop like "Speed Racer" with minimal damage. And that's largely due to foreign box office and DVD.

This is why the studios are having such a hard time with the guilds. Everyone knows that sickening amounts of money are being made because of the foreign markets and DVD sales, meaning everyone wants their cut. This is where we enter the whole "creative accounting" branch of the studios which sometime attempt to make even the most profitable film look as if it lost money to avoid having to make too many sizeable payouts.

But, that would be unethical, on top of being illegal.

 

[Pete-D]

I'm sure as well that Speed Racer generated a pretty fair penny on all those video games, toys, and other merchandising, which is all paid for in advance.

This is also why directors like the Wachowskis will never have to worry about getting work. Even when they have a flop like this, it'll still probably break even in the end, and then who knows the studio execs are always banking that next time they might deliver a Matrix-sized hit. If they don't, well you still break even at least.

 

[TerryRL]

The early bird numbers have "The Incredible Hulk" earning $18 million yesterday, followed by a very potent $12 million first-day mark for "The Happening". "Kung Fu Panda" was a close third with more than $10 million. "You Don't Mess with the Zohan" ($6 million) and Indy IV ($3.7 million) round out the top 5.

'Hulk' is in line with the tracking as it should open in the area of $50 million, while "The Happening" (thanks to name recognition and a Friday the 13th launch) should debut with more than $25 million. "Kung Fu Panda" will take the second slot with a sophomore effort in the neighborhood of $35 million mark.

Official estimates will be posted later.

 

[TheBat]

that is pretty low compared to the first hulk movie. that film did 62 million on the opening weekend.

Jacob

 

[DavidPla]

But was anyone really expecting it to be higher? I mean, it's coming off a first movie pretty much loathed by the general public which was only 5 years ago. It's the word of mouth that needs to carry it past 150 M.

 

[TheBat]

its going to get heavy completion in the next few weeks.. I like the first movie alot.. I am not one of them that hated it.. I did see it last night.. I still liked the first one much better.

it was okay.. but the cgi was terrible.

Jacob

 

[Pete-D]

Box Office Mojo has The Incredible Hulk at $21 million for Friday, The Happening at $12.8 million, Kung Fu Panda at $10 million.

I'd say we're looking at another monster weekend for the box office. I did not expect The Happening to have that big of a Friday, we'll see how word of mouth impacts it.

 

[TerryRL]

Friday Estimates

#1 "The Incredible Hulk" $21.0 million
#2 "The Happening" $12.8 million
#3 "Kung Fu Panda" $10.0 million ($93.7 million) 51% Friday-to-Friday drop
#4 "You Don't Mess with the Zohan" $5.4 million ($57.8 million) 64% Friday-to-Friday drop
#5 "Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull" $3.7 million ($265.4 million) 45% Friday-to-Friday drop
#6 "Sex and the City" $3.5 million ($113.3 million) 52% Friday-to-Friday drop
#7 "Iron Man" $1.440 million ($293.7 million) 34% Friday-to-Friday drop
#8 "The Strangers" $1.435 million ($42.7 million) 54% Friday-to-Friday drop
#9 "The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian" $880K ($129.6 million) 47% Friday-to-Friday drop
#10 "What Happens in Vegas" $570K ($74.7 million) 51% Friday-to-Friday drop

Now this is more like it. The early numbers were a bit off as 'Hulk' got off to a more potent start than initially thought. The film pulled in over $21 million yesterday to easily claim the top spot at the box office. The $21 million mark is a bit lower than the $24.3 million start of Ang Lee's "Hulk" film from 2003, but neither Marvel or Universal expected this new film to open as strong, sensing people may take a "wait-and-see" attitude with this one following the disappointing reception of the previous movie.

With a $21 million opening day, this new "re-imagining" of Hulk (which pays a great deal of homage to the television series) will open in the area of $55-$60 million, a bit ahead of its tracking. What has both studios excited is that the exit polling is much stronger than it was for the 2003 film with an overwhelming number of patrons thus far citing that this film is a major improvement over the last. Marvel and Universal are optimistic that this one will end up having a leggy run in theaters.

M. Night Shyamalan's "The Happening" also got out of the gates with a strong start as it pulled in close to $13 million yesterday. The film is now expected to launch with a much stronger than expected mark in the area of $25-$30 million. The exits haven't been that encouraging thus far, indicating that this one may end up having a short shelf life in theaters.

"Kung Fu Panda" lost about 51% off of its Friday-to-Friday numbers, but look for the movie to rebound today and tomorrow and end up capturing the #2 slot with a sophomore effort of about $35 million. "You Don't Mess with the Zohan" took a steeper hit than anticipated, but should still end up with close to $20 million this weekend. Indy IV rounds out the top 5 and should find itself crossing the $275 million threshold by the end of the weekend.

The studios are ecstatic because this weekend will mark the first time in history that the June has produced back-to-back top twelve earnings of more than $160 million. Two weeks into June and the month has already produced the second and third biggest weekend marks the month has ever seen. To say that the industry is excited is a mild understatement, because this month could end up marking only the second time in history that June has earned more than $1 billion at the box office. June '04 was the only other time the month was able to pull in that much coin.

 

[Pete-D]

This weekend looks very strong, but I think next week might be a bit of a wild card. Get Smart and The Love Guru ... who knows. .

 

[TerryRL]

As for right now, "Get Smart" is tracking toward an opening in the $30-$35 million range, while "The Love Guru" looks to debut with about $20-$25 million. This weekend will mark the seventh consecutive week that the #1 movie earned over $50 million (a new industry record) and next weekend will probably be the only one that doesn't feature a $50 million-plus haul for the whole month.