2008 at the Box Office (1 Viewer)

[DavidPla]

Any chance of it beating the adjusted gross of Last Crusade? 350 M is pretty close to 325 M. I guess it all depends on its third weekend and how much all that competition will affect it.

 

[TerryRL]

You're welcome Jacob.

For Indy IV to beat the adjusted haul of 'Last Crusade', it needs to sell in the area of 50 million admissions to do it. I think Indy IV will have a strong run thanks largely to Saturday and Sunday matinees from here on out, but it'll probably top out with $325 mil at the absolute most. Anything is possible if the movie shows very strong legs from here on out, but the general consensus has the film earning between $315-$325 million domestically.

 

[Shawn.F]

If the numbers on Box Office Mojo are any indication, it won't have legs. Indy topped the film on both Saturday and Sunday.

 

[Malcolm R]

Amazing numbers for SATC. I would've bet any money that it wouldn't beat Indy.

I guess one should never underestimate the need for audiences to vicariously get their jollies watching four old botoxed crones sleep their way around Manhattan.

 

[TerryRL]

From Variety...

"Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull" stayed socko at the
weekend's international box office with $71.5 million at 8,439 playdates in 60 territories while "Sex and the City" wowed foreign fans with $39.2 million at 3,537 in 13 markets.

"Crystal Skull" held impressively overseas in its sophomore session with a 51% decline after the fifth-largest launch of all time, hoisting foreign cume to $266 million. And "Sex and the City" charmed its way to plenty of counter-programming coin with a sparkling $11,091 per-screen average.

"Sex and the City" turned in its best figure by far in the U.K., topping "Crystal Skull" by 42% with $18.3 million. The comedy also won handily in Germany by 43% with $7.8 million while the fourth Indiana Jones pic prevailed in France by 33% with $8.9 million and in Italy by 7% with $3.3 million.

Though romantic comedies have a mixed record overseas, the strong offshore traction for "Sex" underlines the drawing power of high-profile female-driven fare such as "The Devil Wears Prada" ($201 million), "The Holiday" ($141 million) and "What Happens in Vegas" ($95 million in less than a month).

"Sex and the City," handled by an array of overseas distribs, expands next weekend into Australia, Brazil and South Korea.

"Crystal Skull," which has been outperforming last summer's "Transformers," showed plenty of staying power in several other key markets as rivals refrained from challenging the mega-franchise. Spain delivered $6.6 million, off 41%; South Korea grossed $5.8 million, down 34%; and Australia with $5.4 million, off 42%.

"Skull" also opened in first place in India with $1 million, slightly better than "Transformers." With no new competition until U goes day and date with "The Incredible Hulk" on the June 13, "Crystal Skull" should continue cashing in offshore next weekend and easily top the $297 million international cume for 1989's "Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade."

Given its solid traction so far outside the United States, "Crystal Skull" looks likely to wind up becoming the 29th pic to hit the $400 million mark in foreign coin. It's already the top 2008 grosser overseas and it's pushed the combined international cume of the four Indiana Jones pics past $850 million.

The frame also saw Disney's "The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian" stay strong with $16.8 million at 4,500 in 19 markets led by its second Japanese frame with $4.4 million for a $15.2 million cume in that market -- the only territory where "Crystal Skull" has not yet opened. "Prince Caspian" also launched well in Brazil with $2.3 million, Thailand with $1.4 million and Poland with $1.2 million.

The second "Narnia" pic saw its holdover markets decline by a respectable 38% as it aims to match the $450 million foreign cume of the original "The Chronicles of Narnia: the Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe."

The Mouse House is holding back most Euro markets for "Caspian" for several more weeks, awaiting the arrival of school vacations.

Fox's "What Happens in Vegas" continued to connect with $12.1 million at 3,900 in 61 markets, led by a $2.1 million launch in Mexico and a $2 million Korean opening. Its $95.4 million foreign cume has topped expectations and is nearly $30 million ahead of the domestic total.

"Iron Man," which had been the year's top performer until this weekend, mined another $8 million at 5,000 to pull its foreign cume to $243 million. Combined with the domestic total, the actioner's racked up $520 million worldwide to rank 52nd on that list.More than one option(Film) The Iron Giant
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By contrast, Warner Bros. tentpole "Speed Racer" continued to wobble off the track with $3 million at 3,5000 in 39 markets for a disappointing foreign cume of $34.2 million.

Sony's "Made of Honor" added $3.9 million at 1,895 -- half of that from its Spanish launch -- for a $30.6 million foreign cume. And its "21" counted another $3 million at 1,250 to boost the offshore take to $53 million.

Fox's "27 Dresses" took in $1.3 million at 350 via launches in Japan and China to move the international total past $80 million.

Fox also reported "Shine a Light" opened well in Australia and New Zealand with $275,000 at 31. The Rolling Stones docu has already grossed $1.3 million in the U.K.

 

[Pete-D]

It's not like Grandpa Jones ... errr Indiana Jones is immune to those kind of shots either.

 

[TerryRL]

The early tracking numbers for next weekend suggest that DreamWorks/Paramount's "Kung Fu Panda" and Sony's "Don't Mess with the Zohan" are both going to have huge debuts. 'Panda' looks headed for an opening tally north of the $60 million mark, while 'Zohan' looks like it'll debut in the area of $35-$45 million.

If these numbers prove correct (both could go higher) than this will be exactly the kind of start the industry was hoping for in regards to June. The studios are very optimistic that this month's line-up of films will prove to be much stronger than last year's.

The tracking for early June releases looks like this so far...
"Kung Fu Panda" $60 million-plus
"You Don't Mess with the Zohan" $35 million-plus
"The Incredible Hulk" $50 million-plus
"The Happening" $20-$25 million

 

[Pete-D]

Opening The Happening the same weekend as Incredible Hulk is a mistake.

Why not wait a week? I don't expect that film to do stellar business, but at least give yourself an open weekend.

 

[TerryRL]

Studios like to release horror flicks whenever there's a Friday the 13th on the calendar so Fox thought that this was the ideal day (as well as time of the year) to unleash the latest flick from M. Night Shyamalan. I completely agree with you that Fox should've sought another day to open the movie though. At this point, Fox is simply hoping for an opening weekend of at least $20 million. The film itself cost in the area of $55-$60 million to make and the studio believes 'Happening' will leg its way to a profit in the weeks following its release.

The Friday the 13th date was an obvious choice for the studio, plus they didn't want to open opposite "Get Smart" and "The Love Guru" the following weekend. The last weekend of the month would've pit them against "Wall-E" (which everyone in tinseltown thinks will be huge) and "Wanted". Opening against 'Hulk' was their "safest" option because the movie is following a movie (the 2003 Ang Lee film) that wasn't very well received.

The latest tracking indicates that 'Hulk' will easily win (dominate) that weekend, but 'Happening' is expected to have a decent opening in spite of this. After back-to-back disappointments with "The Village" and "Lady in the Water", Shyamalan really needs 'Happening' to perform well at the box office.

 

[JediFonger]

ha ha =P. i knew satc would be huge.

i think panda and zohan will be head to head, but sandler has a huge following. the question is, which will make more $: family crowd or fart crowd? they're usually totally different audiences. i'm betting there are more family (# of admissions) than the fart crowd but it's going to be quite close.

happening is going to be quite gory, hulk will dominate, but not by far.

the studios have smartened up this year, they are giving people a bit more diverse offerings per weekend then stuffing movies targeted at the same audiences all in one.

 

[Chris Atkins]

Hulk only tracking for a $50M+ opening? I wonder if it will beat the opening weekend of the Ang Lee version. Granted, that one had steep drop-offs, but you have to think that the execs are expecting this Hulk to have a better opening than the other one.

 

[TerryRL]

I should've been clearer about that. 'Hulk' is tracking to open with at least $50 million. Every movie has a "bottom number" that they start with in terms of tracking. For example, the bottom number for Indy Iv was $90 million during the final week of its tracking. "Big" films tend to gain strength in their tracking as their release dates get closer.

Right now, the tracking of 'Hulk' continues to improve as its release date draws near. Next week the film will probably have a bottom number of $60 million and a "high" of $75 million, if I had to guess. Marvel and Universal have done a very good job thus far with the marketing.

The two studios are expecting 'Hulk' to have a smashing debut (sorry, couldn't resist) and earn no less than $150 million domestically this summer. The cut that will be released is very heavy on the action and Marvel (who financed the movie) believes that the action, as well as the homages to the television show and the links made to the eventual 'Avengers' movie (i.e. Tony Stark cameo, mention of Stark Industries, S.H.I.E.L.D, and the "super soldier serum" used in the 1940s, which of course is a reference to Captain America).

I've heard that the longer "more meditative" cut of the film that both Ed Norton and the director championed will probably be made available on DVD, depending on how big a hit the movie ends up being. Similar to what happened with "I Am Legend".

 

[JediFonger]

i'm predicting hulk to be around 30million. i'd luv to be wrong, but i just don't see it opening huge. it's just going to be similar to how speed racer was released (also heavily promoted). u gain a little (iron man), lose a little (hulk).

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

I agree. No one I've been to the movies with has had a positive reaction to any of the trailers. And a lot of people still have a bad taste in their mouths from the Ang Lee "Hulk" film.

 

[Chuck Mayer]

I was excited about the trailers; more anecdotally, so was my wife, who couldn't have given a hoot before.

 

[Tim Glover]

Edward Norton is pretty dang good thus my interest...otherwise it's pretty far down the pecking order. I'll probably await the early reviews.

 

[TerryRL]

I have the script and Norton did one helluva good job in his rewrite. The story is both interesting and action packed. I can't wait to see the battle with Hulk and Abomination. I think the movie will be a winner.

 

[Andy Sheets]

I'm looking forward to seeing Hulk. I'm not that hard to please - the trailers have what looks to be some good monster punching and Edward Norton's an excellent choice for Banner. I would prefer a somewhat smaller Hulk but it's not a dealbreaker

 

[taco]

If reviews and word of mouth are good Hulk should do well overall but opening week has competition from The Happening.

 

[Pete-D]

June and July look very solid box office wise but what's slated for August?