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2008 at the Box Office (1 Viewer)

Douglas Monce

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I'm starting to wonder if people are getting sequel burn out. With the exception of Indy, the films that are doing well seem to be original or first films.

Also Lion/witch/wardrobe was heavily marketed to churches. No such marketing was done for Prince Caspian. I wonder if that had an effect.

Doug
 

Tim Glover

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Actually at my parents church they got a big catalog about using various supplements to use the themes in Prince Caspian for upcoming Vacation Bible School etc...

A little late to this discussion but I disagree that a weak King Kong helped Lion, Witch & The Wardrobe. Remember that Narnia opened just a couple of weeks after Potter-Goblet of Fire (a very powerful b/o performer).

I believe that it was a strong LWW that made it a big hit. :)
 

Douglas Monce

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Really? The church that I do contract work for from time to time go nothing related to the film. Where they got tons of stuff for the last film.

Doug
 

TerryRL

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Howdy Tim.

Mike is probably right. SATC will have a strong Friday showing, but expect Indy IV to do extremely well on Saturday and Sunday with the family crowd. SATC will no doubt score through the roof with women as they come out in force to see the movie.

By the way, the early tracking looks good for both "Kung Fu Panda", "You Don't Mess with the Zohan", and "The Incredible Hulk". The news isn't so good for "The Happening" which could end up being another box office disappointment for M. Night Shyamalan. Fox is hoping the numbers improve as we near the film's Friday the 13th launch. As it stands now, 'Hulk' looks like it might completely dominate that weekend.

Fox is hoping for a good opening and positive word-of-mouth to turn "The Happening" into a solid hit. Universal however has done a very good job promoting 'Hulk' as a more action heavy telling of the Marvel hero as opposed to Ang Lee's 2003 film. Universal and Marvel execs are right now expecting an opening tally well north of the $50 million mark.

All in all the industry is bracing themselves for what they think will be a phenomenal June session of business. After the disaster that was April, business has rebounded with a vengeance. By Saturday, May '08 will in all likelihood mark only the fourth time in history that the month has earned more than $900 million (joining '02, '03, and last year).
 

Tim Glover

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Hey Mike & Terry!

During my absence Terry I missed your Box Office posts bigtime! :) It was really cool to go back and read your analysis on this thread. Good stuff my man, good stuff. :)
 

Tim Glover

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Pixar has the fingertips of Gold but Wall-E doesn't ignite a strong reaction in the crowds I've been in when the trailer hits. Maybe I'm just transferring my own feeling. I think it will be fine (Has Pixar ever let us down? :)).

Not to keen on Hulk personally although I'm a huge Ed Norton fan. The Happening looks like it has promise.
 

Larry Sutliff

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Terry, is it too early to know how TDK is tracking? I'm very curious about it's eventual box office performance. Of all of the big summer movies, this is the one that co-workers most often mention, but the darkness may keep it from being as big as Indy or Iron Man.
 

TerryRL

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As always Tim, I greatly appreciate the compliments.

WB won't make the early tracking for TDK public until about a month out from release. So expect to begin hearing rumblings about it during the week of the release of WB's "Get Smart" (6/20). From the little I've heard, not many have seen the current cut of the movie, but WB execs are absolutely stoked at what director Christopher Nolan has achieved.

The trailers have received very strong reactions, the viral campaign has been an even bigger success than the studio had hoped for, and the early merchandise sales have been extremely impressive (some retailers have had a tough time keeping the toys in stock, especially anything having to do with the Joker). The brass at WB are pretty confident right now.

Not only are some of the execs talking "Oscar" in regards to the movie (especially for the performances of Heath Ledger and Aaron Eckhart), but the studio is expecting TDK to have little difficulty in soaring past the $250 million mark domestically. Anything can happen, especially where films' box office grosses are concerned, but TDK looks very much like a "sure thing" in terms of being a big hit this summer.
 

Edwin-S

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The crowd I was in, when the trailer ran, was the exact opposite of what you described. Reaction was noticeably positive. Like you, I think Pixar will do well with WALL-E.
 

TerryRL

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Looks like "Sex and the City" pulled in $2.5 million from midnight screenings last night, an incredible number for a film solely aimed at women. Rival studios now predict that the movie has a legit shot at earning a Friday mark of $20 million (including the midnight screenings). Those same pundits also feel that the movie will be extremely front-loaded (largely because reviews have been very mixed) and lose steam to Indy IV on Saturday and Sunday (Indy remains the first choice for family audiences).

In saying that, many are now predicting an opening weekend haul in the neighborhood of $40-$50 million and possibly snagging the top spot depending on how strong Indy performs on Saturday and Sunday. Indy could have a sophomore performance in the area of $45-$55 million.

Whatever the case may be, the movie performed extremely well during the midnight shows and the industry looks to have a very busy three days of business with SATC, Indy IV, 'Prince Caspian', and "Iron Man" dominating the landscape.
 

Patrick Sun

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I saw a late afternoon showing of SatC with a group of co-workers today, and I was running late, so I missed the first 10 minutes, and the theater packed with 95% women in the audience. I stayed, and found another showing that just started, just to catch the opening 10 minutes, and that showing was also packed with about the same percentage of women. Sheesh, SatC might actually hit $45 million this weekend.
 

TerryRL

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My wife and sister-in-law both took off work to see an early show and both came back talking about how great the movie was. And yes, both admitted that they cried at the end. They also revealed to me that the movie received a rousing ovation by the "nearly packed" theater. This movie is going to go through the roof with female audiences.
 

TerryRL

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Um...wow.

The early Friday estimates have "Sex and the City" pulling in a whopping $28 million (counting the midnight previews). Indy IV was second with about $14.1 million (a 54% Friday-to-Friday drop). "The Strangers" enjoyed a stronger than expected debut as it pulled in close to $7 million. "Iron Man" ($3.5 mil)and 'Prince Caspian' ($3.3 mil) were fourth and fifth respectively.

SATC is now expected to debut in the area of $65-$70 million. Indy IV is on course to pull in the neighborhood of $50 million, while "The Strangers" will earn between $18-$20 million.

SATC will earn the third biggest opening of the year and the third or fourth best debut ever for an R rated movie. It will also easily replace the first 'Tomb Raider' ($47.7 million) film for the bragging rights of biggest opening for a film headlined by a woman. Again, wow.
 

MikeRS

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Won't be a squeaker but a 54% drop on Friday would be an excellent hold for Indy. That could be a sub-50% drop from a memorial day weekend. I wasn't expecting that. Even a 60 percent drop wouldn't have been disastrous. We'll see if the number holds and how the weekend goes.

But yeah, wow on "Sex"....
 

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