2007 at the Box Office (2 Viewers)

[TerryRL]

"Cleopatra" came really close to destroying Fox. Fox basically was hanging on by a thread until "The Sound of Music" opened two years later. In the early '60s the movie cost Fox $44 million (a record $7 mil ultimately went to Liz Taylor). I don't know what Fox's operating budget was at that time, but I know that they had to sell off their backlot to cover the massive costs on the movie. The budget was originally $10 million, which was gigantic at the time.

 

[Colin Jacobson]

Wow - some of those numbers shock me. I was going to call you insane when I thought they were your guesses!

I think the Simpsons flick is going to be a dud. I just find it hard to imagine that after 18 years of a TV show - one that's lost a lot of once diehard fans (like me) due to declining quality - it's going to draw a lot of people willing to drop $9 to see it. I also have yet to see anything that actually differentiates it from the TV series - there's nothing that feels different or "big screen" about it so far. I'll probably see it out of curiosity, but frankly, it seems pointless to me...

 

[TerryRL]

Fox truly believes that a 'Simpsons' movie will spawn a hit film franchise. It almost worked with "The X-Files" back in the late '90s, but Fox has had a VERY tough time getting a sequel to the big screen after the first movie proved to be a big hit (earning $83.9 million, which adjusted for inflation would translate to domestic haul of about $117 million in today's market).

While an 'X-Files' sequel is being "talked about" for a summer '08 run in theaters, I think a ten-year gap between films is too long. Believe me when I tell you that the same mistake won't be made with "The Simpsons" if it turns out to be as big as they (Fox brass) expect it to be.

 

[Colin Jacobson]

I'm committing right now: I think the Simpsons movie will earn $72 million and that's it! This from the man who was sure Passion of the Christ would make nothing over $30 million!

One difference between the two that I see: the X-Files movie was presented as an event that would be a major plot mover. I never watched the series but it sounded so interesting that I went to the flick. Is there anything that's supposed to be special about the Simpsons movie? Not that I can see. So far it looks like a long episode. Again, I'm enough of a fan that I'm sure I'll see it, but it's not high on my list, and I can't imagine why most people would drop their dough to see something they've been watching for free over the last 17 years...

 

[TerryRL]

Don't feel bad about you prediction for 'The Passion', of all the people I talked to about that movie's prospects, the most optimistic forecasts for the film's success were at about $50-$70 million. The fact that the movie went on to earn $370 million still blows me away to this day. As long as I've been tracking box office numbers, 'The Passion' ranks up there with the success of "My Big Fat Greek Wedding" and the phenomenal legs of "Titanic" as the three most shocking box office stories I've ever covered.

As for "The Simpsons", I have no clue as to where it may end up falling. I do know that Fox is very confident that the movie will be a big hit though.

 

[DavidPla]

"The Simpsons" will do very well. Definitely over 100 million, IMO. X-Files had a specific fanbase. Simpsons has an everybody fanbase. Whether people watch the cartoon anymore or not doesn't matter too much, the movie itself is an event. And some of the kids who grew up watching it when it premiered in 1990 have kids of their own now watching new episodes. The name alone will get people into theatres.

The projections that surprise me are TMNT and Hostel 2. Now, I'm pulling for Turtles.. but $150M for a dead franchise seems a bit much. At least $100M I can understand. And $70M for Hostel 2? Saw it isn't! That film garnered a huge fanbase. The Hostel fanbase only seems like a small niche market. The reason I think the original did so well were people going in thinking it was going to be just like Saw. I think it'll pull a Ring and Grudge and make less than its predesessor.

 

[TerryRL]

I agree with you on your assessment of "Hostel 2". I also don't think it'll be quite as big a hit as Lionsgate execs believe, but the sequel cost the studio very little to make and even if it doesn't come close to that (very) high prediction, I do think the movie will still prove to be a profitable hit for them, which will lead to a "Hostel 3".

Lionsgate is basing their prediction not only on its successful theatrical run (earning $47.3 million at a production cost of just $5 million), but on the film's very strong run on home video. This is why it was moved to a summer release (June 8th). They seem to be hoping the same formula that worked for 'Austin Powers' will work for them. The first 'Austin' flick was a solid performer (earning $53.8 million in '97 at a cost of only $17 million), but the movie was a huge hit on home video (when DVD was in its infancy) and the sequel ended up being one of the 1999's biggest earners ($206 million).

I doubt the same thing will happen for "Hostel". A more realistic prediction would be in the area of $50 million. Still, the box office can be very unpredictable and the movie could blow past studio expectations. Unlikely, but possible.

 

[Malcolm R]

I'm still rather mystified by the prediction for "Hairspray". Have the studios forgotten what happened to the last movie musical, based on a broadway musical, based on an old movie (i.e. "The Producers")? That was a big flop and I'd think that "The Producers" is more popular than "Hairspray" to begin with. I don't see this doing much more than the gross of the original movie.

I'm a HUGE "Hairspray" fan, and I'm looking forward to the film, I just don't think it's going to cross over to become a big hit.

 

[BrettGallman]

I don't think TMNT is a dead franchise at all, though. It's gotten pretty big again since the new animated series launched a few years ago. It might not do $150, but I think it'll come close.

And I'm surprised that Hostel 2 is being released in June. I could have sworn it was originally going to be released this Friday. I was pretty excited about it, and just found out the other day it's not coming until June. In regards to its box office prospects, I think it can do decent. I guess we'll see how big the fanbase for it is when it's released; no one expected Saw to do what it did, so maybe Hostel can follow suit.

 

[TerryRL]

"Hostel 2" was originally set for release next weekend, but the producers ultimately felt that the movie was better suited for a summer launch.

 

[BrettGallman]

Cool, Terry. I thought I might be going crazy there for a second. I guess Lions Gate has a lot of confidence by bringing it out right after the big three May releases; it might be effective counter-programming though. I think The Omen remake did pretty well last year during the same weekend, so who knows.

 

[JediFonger]

re: XF, i'm going actually going through it (up around season5 right now, right before the movie fight the future) right now.

what's difficult about a series like XF is that every single episode WAS a film. if they have already arrived at that level, how much more can they improve upon it when making a film except throw more $ at the other dept. such as costume, fx, etc. and that they did. i'm going to watch fight the future again once i finish s5, but i remembered thinking after being there for the debut in june '97, that it wasn't as good as a weekly episode of XF at all. i felt so disappointed. it's just got HUGE expectations. so unless they serialize the films like they did the show, i don't expect the sequel to be successful at all. they're talking about doing a monster episode formula, i think that's just not what the XF is ONLY about. it's certainly got a great #of monster eps (especially early seasons). the best eps (imho) were when carter went off on his own carter-isms. the diabolical, verbose monologues that he writes for much of s2 through s5 were just brilliant. if they stuck to that, it should be ok.

 

[Rakesh.S]

Just my opinion on some of these predictions --

FOX
"Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer" $185 million-plus
-- doubtful ($140 if the movie is actually good)

"The Simpsons" $150 million-plus
-- show is fading, and hasn't been funny in years..very doubtful

"Live Free or Die Hard" $100 million-plus
-- LOVE die hard, but bruce willis has put out turd after turd in recent years, minus Sin City, and it's been over 10 years since the last one. I see Rocky Balboa type numbers here.

"Alien vs. Predator: Survival of the Fittest" $80 million-plus
-- looks to be on target.

"The Hills Have Eyes 2" $50 million-plus
-- looks to be on target

DISNEY
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" $350 million-plus
-- no doubt here..I would say $400+

"National Treasure: The Book of Secrets" $150 million-plus
-- may come in just under $150

LIONSGATE
"Saw IV" $80 million-plus
-- i'm thinking this is where the franchise tapers off..Saw 3 was good, but nowhere near the first two. I expect a big opening weekend and a huge dropoff after that. $70 mill.

"Hostel 2" $70 million-plus
-- no frikkin way. The first one sucked. $45 mill if lucky.

"3:10 to Yuma" $60 million-plus
-- that would be cool, and i hope the movie does well..but I doubt it. Christian Bale still isn't a household name and Crowe hasn't been that hot of late. I say $45 mill here, or maybe The Prestige type numbers.

NEW LINE
"Rush Hour 3" $150 million-plus
-- no doubt here. Chris Tucker is a funny guy and he doesn't make movies outside of this franchise.

"Code Name: The Cleaner" $50 million-plus
-- trailer looked horrible, plus an F-list star in Cedric the Entertainer. $30 mill if they're lucky.

PARAMOUNT
"Shrek the Third" $350 million-plus (DreamWorks Animation)
-- this is automatic.

"Transformers" $250 million-plus
-- doubt it.

"Beowulf" $150 million-plus
-- doubt it. The last Beowulf movie went straight to video and it had decent actors in it too. Does anyone care about Beowulf?

"Norbit" $85 million-plus
-- could be the sleeper hit and Eddie Murphy's return to form.

SONY
"Spider-Man 3" $350 million-plus
-- no question about it. $400 is likely.

"Ghost Rider" $100 million-plus
-- I hope so, but I can see this doing daredevil numbers.

"Resident Evil: Extinction" $70 million-plus
-- sounds about right.

UNIVERSAL
"Evan Almighty" $200 million-plus
-- very doubtful. $125ish sounds about right.

"The Bourne Ultimatum" $150 million-plus
-- yes...this is a terrific franchise, and matt damon is ultra cool.

 

[Colin Jacobson]

Uh, Daredevil made $102m, so the prediction for Ghost Rider IS for Daredevil numbers!

 

[Mike.P]

Paramount is expecting 250+ million for Transformers?

I will be shocked if it breaks 150.

 

[James_Kiang]

I'm including my thoughts on some of these predictions. Copying from Terry's post just for the ease of getting them all together, not calling him out on studio predictions .

FOX
"Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer" $185 million-plus - While not a huge fan of the first film, I thought it left things in a good place for a better second film. I just watched the trailer for the first time and think it does have promise. I doubt it will make this much though, more like $150M.
"The Simpsons" $150 million-plus - Not a fan really, and so a doubter on this number. Not sure what to predict. Maybe $60M?
"Live Free or Die Hard" $100 million-plus - Possibly, though it could fall a little short.
"Alien vs. Predator: Survival of the Fittest" $80 million-plus - I doubt it very much. $50M is my guess.
"The Hills Have Eyes 2" $50 million-plus - Probably about right.

DISNEY
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" $350 million-plus - Probably about right. One of two potential $400M+ earners.
"Ratatouille" $200 million-plus (Pixar) - Seems to fall in line with Pixar earnings, but I do wonder if the public is still interested in cute talking animated animal movies. I woin't bet against them though.
"National Treasure: The Book of Secrets" $150 million-plus - I like the first one well enough, but I don't know if this really has much chance of cracking $100M.

LIONSGATE
"Saw IV" $80 million-plus - Possible, or maybe as little as half that if the public is tired of it.
"Hostel 2" $70 million-plus - No way. Be lucky to do better than half that.

NEW LINE
"His Dark Materials: The Golden Compass" $200 million-plus - Having read the books, I hope this happens, but I don't think so. I doubt it will pass $100M.
"Rush Hour 3" $150 million-plus About right.
"Hairspray" $100 million-plus - I predict well less, around $60M.
"The Number 23" $100 million-plus - I doubt it.

PARAMOUNT
"Shrek the Third" $350 million-plus (DreamWorks Animation) - I predict less, though it should go over $300M.
"Transformers" $250 million-plus - I hope so, but maybe $175M is more realistic.
"Beowulf" $150 million-plus - What I have seen looks great and I want to see it, but I don't know if I could guess higher than $75M, if that.

SONY
"Spider-Man 3" $350 million-plus - Should do it no problem. This is the other one that could go over $400M.
"Ghost Rider" $100 million-plus - Again, I hope it does this but I'd probably put it more at Blade-like numbers, so $75M.

UNIVERSAL
"Evan Almighty" $200 million-plus - That would be a surprise to me. Maybe $125M.
"The Bourne Ultimatum" $150 million-plus - About right.

WARNER BROS.
"Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix" $285 million-plus - About right, maybe $250.
"I Am Legend" $150 million-plus - About right.
"Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles" $150 million-plus - Half that, maybe.
"Ocean's Thirteen" $125 million-plus - Should be able to do this or more.
"300" $70 million-plus - I would love to see this one succeed, but I don't know if it can. Realistically, I would predict around $50M.

THE WEINSTEIN CO.
"Grindhouse" $70 million-plus - No way. $50M tops.

 

[Colin Jacobson]

I think Ocean's 13 is going to need lots of good reviews and word of mouth to be a hit. 11 was a blast, but 12 was a drag - a serious disappointment. They'll need something positive to cancel out the bad memories of that clunker...

 

[Colin Jacobson]

I also think $200m+ for Evan is WAY too optimistic. Steve Carrell's popular but he's not Jim Carrey. Bruce crushed because of Carrey and for no other reason. Carrell can't produce the same numbers - really, no comic can right now...

 

[JediFonger]

i disagree. i think carrell is on a roll because of the office. that and morgan freemen is a winning combo. it's going to be a big smash hit. comedies are always good moneymakers if they're good movies.

 

[Rakesh.S]

my bad..sorry.

I was thinking it made around $75 mill, which is what I expect for Ghost Rider.

$25 opening weekend, and a $75 mill finish.