2006 at the Box Office (1 Viewer)

[Tino]

Huh??

Of course they do.

 

[Mark Hawley]

Has the "Trapped in the Closet" episode of South Park aired on Comedy Central since being bumped?

 

[Jose Martinez]

Heheheh. I guess Matt Stone and Trey Parker must be happy about MI: III's opening weekend.

 

[Nathan V]

Tino,

I was under the impression, as a result of reading numerous interviews with actors and directors complaining about how they never get anything from dvd sales, that dvd revenue goes directly to the studio. Am I wrong? Are these simply isolated events?

Regards,
Nathan

 

[TerryRL]

Generally, DVD/home video revenue is completely controlled by the studios (as well as the finacial backers of the film if the studio went outside their own resources). Most of the 20/20 stars ($20 million against 20% of backend) receive their money from the worldwide theatrical grosses of their movies. From what I understand, only a handful of the "big" stars receive significant pieces of their home video sales.

Off the top of my head, I can only name Tom Cruise (who is often serves as a producer on his films), Mel Gibson (he received a big chunk of 'The Passion' sales, as he also will with "Apocalypto"), George Lucas (anything bearing the Lucasfilm logo), and Steven Spielberg (anything bearing the Amblin or DreamWorks logos).

 

[Malcolm R]

That's why I specifically search out "used" DVD's of some flicks. The first customer paid the royalties, all my money goes to the store/reseller.

 

[Holadem]

Yeah but stars still profit indirectly from DVD sales. Huge DVD revenues may sweeten the next deal.

--
H

 

[Malcolm R]

Friday estimates put Mission: Impossible III at $7.45M, a 55% drop from last Friday, and just a smidge ahead of Poseidon at $7.3M.

That would probably put both in the $22M to $24M range for the weekend.

I don't recall how Mother's Day affects the BO? I'd think it would dampen it slightly.

 

[DavidPla]

Ouch for "Poseidon"... I was thinking at the very least 30 million for the weekend. I guess the REAL big opening will occur with "Da Vinci Code"... hopefully!

 

[David Williams]

The reviews have been radioactive with Poseidon so I'm not terribly surprised that it's gotten off to a slow start.

 

[TerryRL]

Definitely not the start WB was hoping for. Director Wolfgang Peterson's last two movies ("Troy" and "The Perfect Storm"), which were both for WB, opened to $46.8 million and $41.3 million respectively. This really isn't the start WB was envisoning.

 

[Adam_S]

I have an iron clad prediction for the summer:

The Omen will have the biggest non-holiday Tuesday opening of all time.

 

[Adam_S]

They probably spent more than that paying 10,000 screenwriters to work on the script Protosevich couldn't manage to finish, but he used to be a vice-president so... anyway guess why Warner execs wanted the movie made.

 

[Kevin Grey]

Poseidon's performance is certainly good news for Tom Cruise- this should shift quite a bit of attention away from MI:3 specifically or more to a general "is another slump coming up" talk.

 

[WadeLil]

I wonder if this summers higher gas prices will make for even more dissapointments?Never mind what you pay to watch the movies.

 

[James@R]

It wasn't hard to see this one coming. If estimates hold, MI3 will have fallen less than 50%- very respectable for a big budget action film's second weekend. The word of mouth was clearly stronger than last week's predictions of doom.

DaVinci's peformance is going to be interesting next weekend. It will certainly top $50 million, since it's already one of the few 'must see' films of the summer. But will everyone be placing too many expectations on it now? Everyone was convinced that Cruise's female fanbase cost MI3, but what's going to happen if DaVinci alienates much of the "Red States"?

 

[Adam_S]

Over the Hedge will also do really well. I think there's more interest in it than there was in Madagascar last year.

 

[TerryRL]

Weekend Estimates

#1 "Mission: Impossible III" $24.5 million ($84.6 million) -48%
#2 "Poseidon" $20.3 million
#3 "RV" $9.5 million ($42.8 million) -13%
#4 "Just My Luck" $5.5 million
#5 "An American Haunting" $3.7 million ($10.9 million) -36%
#6 "United 93" $3.5 million ($25.6 million) -33%
#7 "Stick It" $3.2 million ($22.2 million) -41%
#8 "Ice Age: The Meltdown" $2.9 million ($187.3 million) -28%
#9 "Silent Hill" $2.2 million ($44.5 million) -45%
#10 "Hoot" $2.1 million ($6.2 million) -37%

After seven consecutive weeks of besting the numbers posted during the same period from last year at the box office, this weekend saw the streak come to an end as business was off by 14%. This time last year saw "Monster-in-Law" lead the box office with a $23.1 million debut. Compared to the 2004 (when "Troy" topped the box office with $46.8 million), business was off by nearly 23%. The industry is hoping this will be a "small bump in the road" as next weekend sees the launches of "The Da Vinci Code" and "Over the Hedge".

Paramount's "Mission: Impossible III" repeated as the nation's top box office draw as it saw a moderate 48% dip in business. The film has so far earned close to $85 million and looks as if its on course for a final mark in the neighborhood of $150 million, thus becoming the seventh consecutive $100 million-plus performer for star Tom Cruise (tying the record achieved by Tom Hanks). The $150 million sequel had a stronger hold than most expected and should go on to have a solid run in theaters. Still, the film will end up as the least successful of the M:I franchise, but I doubt that will stop Paramount from doing another one.

WB's "Poseidon" got off to a underwhelming start as it failed to meet industry expectations that had the film opening in the area of $30 million. The $160 million budgeted remake earned only $20 million this weekend, representing director Wolfgang Peterson's lowest opening weekend mark since 1995's "Outbreak" (opening with $13.4 million before legging its way to a final mark of $67.6 million). Peterson's last three films all debuted with more than $37 million ("Troy" $48.6 million, "The Perfect Storm" $41.3 million, and "Air Force One" $37.1 million) and "Poseidon" was expected to continue that trend. This one isn't expected to have the strongest of legs, but WB is hopeful the film will post bigger numbers abroad.

Sony's "RV" continues to show strong legs as it was off by only 13% this weekend, which was easily the smallest decline of the top ten. A final tally in the neighborhood of $75 million is now expected.

Fox's "Just My Luck" got off to a so-so start as it pulled in $5.5 million, earning a very soft per-theater average of $2,164 from its 2,541 locations (only the fifth best average of the top ten). Don't be surprised if this one pulls a faster-than-expected disappearing act.

Free Releasing's "An American Haunting" lost only 36% of its business from last weekend (the third best hold of the top ten) and has earned close to $11 million since its release. The $14 million film should top out with more than $20 million.

Universal's "United 93" was off by only 33% this week. The film has so far tallied more than $25 million. Disney's "Stick It" has pulled in a little over $22 million since its release. "Ice Age: The Meltdown" has now earned more than $187 million and has a very realistic shot at ultimately topping the double-century mark. Sony's "Silent Hill" now sits on a $44.5 million haul, while New Line's "Hoot" rounds out the top ten. The film has earned only $6.2 million during its two weeks in theaters.

As reported by the Box office Mojo site, during the January thru April period, 2006 has so far tallied more than $2.72 billion at the box office compared to the $2.57 billion 2005 pulled in during the frame (representing a 5% increase). While this is good news for the industry, the problem is that 2006 needed 17 more films to do it. During the January thru April frames of both years, 2005 had 46 releases compared to the massive 63 launches seen this year (a new industry record).

With so many more new releases, the best that could be achieved was only a 5% increase. The industry has a right to be worried and a lot is riding on the next two years to reverse the trend of less and less patrons frequenting movie theaters.

Next weekend the industry is hoping for a major spike in business as Sony releases "The Da Vinci Code" and DreamWorks unleashes "Over the Hedge". Both films are expected to open in the top two slots next week. Lionsgate will also release the horror film "See No Evil" from producer (and WWE owner) Vince McMahon.

Some are expecting 'Da Vinci' to be a box office phenom on par with 2004's "The Passion of the Christ". I don't know how realistic that is, but a movie starring two-time Oscar winner Tom Hanks, directed by two-time Oscar winner Ron Howard, and based on a hugely popular best seller should pull in some serious business next weekend (or end up being one of this year's biggest box office disappointments). We'll see what happens.

 

[Larry Sutliff]

I've read on another board that Sony isn't allowing press screenings of THE DA VINCI CODE. Has anyone else heard this?

 

[Shawn.F]

Well, they don't really need to given the built-in audience for this. However, I'm pretty sure that the press has either already seen this or will be seeing it early this week. I have passes for a screening on Thursday, but I doubt that is going to be the first time the press is seeing it.