2004 Box Office Predictions And Discussions (1 Viewer)

[Colin Jacobson]

I think FOTR had longer legs than the two follow-ups just because it crept up on many people. Before FOTR appeared, I had no inclination to see these movies. I only went to see it theatrically because of all the great reviews, and it didn't impress me that much at that time.

However, two DVDs later, I grew to really like it, so I got excited about TTT. The ball kept rolling from there and had me really wired about ROTK.

The LOTR series earned fans the old fashioned way. Yeah, it already had a strong built-in audience, but it picked up tons of fans along the way. That's why FOTR had the least "front loaded" numbers of the bunch: it had to grow on people and convince folks like me it was worth a look...

 

[nolesrule]

BoxOfficeMojo is showing a weekend ROTK estimate of $14.125M for ROTK, the breakdown being F-3.6, Sa-6.2, Su-4.3. The estimate is a 50% drop from last weekend, but as I said before, last Friday's box office numbers were unusually high. Even if it's 10% too high, it'd still be nearly $13M.

The estimate puts it at $312.2M after 26 days, good for #2 for films released in 2003 and #13 all-time, just $2.5M behind FOTR. ROTK is still $27.5M behind Finding Nemo for the 2003 box office crown, but is $78M ahead of where Nemo was after 26 days.


The Big Fish weekend Estimate is $14.5M. Less than half-million separating the two. Depending on how the estimates hold or not, this could be a close one.

 

[TerryRL]

Weekend Estimates

#1 "Big Fish" $14.5 million ($24.1 million)
#2 "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" $14.1 million ($312.2 million)
#3 "Cheaper by the Dozen" $12.0 million ($101.3 million)
#4 "Something's Gotta Give" $8.2 million ($93.0 million)
#5 "Cold Mountain" $7.9 million ($55.3 million)
#6 "My Baby's Daddy" $7.8 million
#7 "Chasing Liberty" $6.0 million
#8 "Paycheck" $5.2 million ($46.4 million)
#9 "Mona Lisa Smile" $4.5 million ($57.0 million)
#10 "The Last Samurai" $4.5 million ($97.1 million)

After spending the previous 4 weeks in limited release, Sony's Oscar hopeful "Big Fish" went wide this weekend and took the #1 crown. Not many in the industry thought that the movie's numbers would be enough to topple the juggernaut that is 'Return of the King' (especially considering that 'Fish' is playing in more than 1,100 fewer locations), but Tim Burton's latest opus got off to a fantastic start. Sony is expecting this one to have solid legs over the coming weeks as they campaign for Oscar consideration. Albert Finney has emerged as an odds-on-favorite for a Supporting Actor nomination for his role in the film.

New Line's blockbuster, 'The Return of the King', suffered it's biggest percentage fall of it's release this weekend. The film took a 50% as it fell to the #2 slot. The Oscar favorite has so far earned a mammoth total of $312 million and is well on it's way to posting more than $350 million domestically. The movie became the second fastest film in history to pass the $300 million mark (behind "Spider-Man") and it's worldwide total has already passed the $700 million plateau. When it's all said and done, the movie will have become only the second film in history to earn more than $1 billion worldwide and Peter Jackson may (finally) have earned Oscars for Best Picture and Director.

Fox's family hit "Cheaper by the Dozen" passed the $100 million mark this weekend. The movie took a 44% hit this weekend and is on course to top out in the area of $150 million, giving star Steve Martin the biggest hit of his career.

Sony's romantic/comedy "Something's Gotta Give" took only a 30% hit this weekend and saw it's total rise to $93 million. This time next weekend the movie will have passed the $100 million mark. Not only will it be the second $100 million grosser for star Jack Nicholson for 2003, it'll be the seventh such hit during his long career.

Miramax's Oscar hopeful "Cold Mountain" saw a 31% dip in business this weekend as it's total climbed to $55 million. Miramax is hoping it's Oscar campaign will not only nab the film a bunch of nods, but be enough to push it past the $100 million mark.

Miramax's comedy "My Baby's Daddy" had a very strong debut this weekend as it posted close to $8 million. The film is playing in less than 1,500 locations and posted the second best per-theater average of the top 10 (behind "Big Fish"). The movie's total cost (production and marketing) is just under $25 million and is on course to end up being a very profitable hit for the studio.

WB's comedy "Chasing Liberty" had a somewhat weak debut this weekend. It played in close to 1,000 more locations than "My Baby's Daddy" and ended up posting about half that film's per-theater average. This one will probably fade very fast.

Paramount's action flick "Paycheck" continues to underwhelm at the box office. The movie took a 47% hit and has so far tallied just over $46 million. A final mark of about $60 million is expected.

Sony's "Mona Lisa Smile" took a 45% hit this weekend and has so far taken in $57 million. A final tally in the area of $70 million is now expected.

WB's epic, "The Last Samurai", took a 39% hit this weekend and saw it's total hit $97 million. This time next weekend the movie will have passed the $100 million mark, giving star Tom Cruise the eleventh such hit of his career.

Next weekend will see the releases of Universal's "Along Came Polly", Disney's "Teacher's Pet" and WB's "Torque". I'm guessing that "Along Came Polly", which stars Ben Stiller and Jennifer Aniston, will be the new release to beat next weekend.

Despite not being as big a year as 2002 in terms of overall box office total, 2003 did break 2002's record for total number in $100 million earners. 24 films in 2002 reached the century mark, by next weekend 2003 will boast of 29 releases to join the century club.

 

[Ray H]

I'm a little disappointed by this weekend's numbers since I was hoping for ROTK to hang on there longer, but it was close. Maybe the actuals will be even closer.

I'm still hoping ROTK will pass the $400 million mark though. If it follows TTT's trend and makes about the same money until the end of its run, it should come in at about $370 million. Hopefully, it'll do better with all the awards it's picking up.

But still, I guess domestic take isn't that important when it looks likely to break $1 billion worldwide.

 

[TerryRL]

At this rate, ROTK probably won't pass the $400 million mark, but it'll still become only the seventh film in history to earn more than $350 million domestically. That's nothing to be disappointed about. Most are pegging ROTK's final domestic tally to be about $360 million. An Oscar bump could push it to about $375 million. In the end, I seriously doubt New Line will be upset with it's final domestic tally should it not reach $400 mil.

The real impact of these movies has been in their overseas performances. Only the 'Harry Potter' movies have proven to be more popular internationally than the LOTR movies. Both 'Potter' flicks posted more than $600 million overseas, ROTK will be the first LOTR movie to pass that amount. New Line is far more interested in ROTK hitting the $1 billion mark worldwide, if it doesn't hit $400 mil (which now seems to be the case), they won't sweat it in the least.

 

[Ray H]

I'm not really disappointed about it not making $400 but rather its 50% drop-off.

I decided to just go ahead and make a bunch of predictions. It looks like it could be fun to revisit in a year.

.................................

‘Kay. I’m editing this on July 10th. I’ll separate the films that have already been released from those that haven’t. For those that have already been released, I’ve added the actual total in bold next to my original prediction. Wow. I did badly.

The Alamo - $90 million. ($22.3 M)
Along Came Polly - $80 million. ($88.1 M)
Around the World in 80 Days - $80 million.
Barbershop 2- $75 million. ($65.1 M)
The Butterfly Effect- $40 million ($57.9 M)
The Chronicles of Riddick- $80 million.
The Day After Tomorrow- $140 million. ($181 M)
Garfield- $80 million.
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban - $280 million.
Hellboy- $80 million. ($59.4 M)
Hidalgo- $140 million. ($67.2 M)
Jersey Girl - $85 million. ($25.2 M)
Kill Bill: Volume Two - $75 million. ($65.8 M)
King Arthur - $200 million. Not even close!
The Ladykillers - $120 million. ($39.7 M)
The Passion of the Christ - $150 million. ($370.2 M)
The Punisher- $80 million. ($33.7 M)
Scooby Doo 2: Monsters Unleashed - $75 million. ($83.4 M)
Spider-Man 2 - $350 million. (Might be close!)
Starsky and Hutch- $90 million. ($88.2 M)
The Terminal- $140 million. Doesn’t look like it’ll be close.
Troy- $200 million. (132 M)
Van Helsing - $200 million. ($119.1 M)
The Whole Ten Yards - $60 million.($16.3)

……………………………………………….

My revised number is in bold next to my old.

Alien vs. Predator - $100 million. ($120 M)
Looks like it’ll be fun.

Alexander - $90 million. ($70 M)
Epics don’t look to hot this summer.

The Aviator - $85 million. ($110 M)
Trailer looks good.

The Brothers Grimm - $80 million. ($60 M)
May be too obscure.

The Bourne Supremacy- $130 million. ($150 M)
If it’s as good as the first, it could do better.

Blade: Trinity- $80 million. ($75 M )
Seems a little cultish, but it should do about as well as the others.

Catwoman - $70 million. ($30 M)
We’ve seen better movies do worse.

Constantine - $85 million. ($65 M)
Genre thing again.

Collateral-$85 million. ($130 M)
Looks good.

Cinderella Man - $100 million. ($80 M)
Haven’t really heard anything.

The Incredibles- $300 million. ($270 M)
Still looks pretty solid but seems to be a different kind of Pixar.

I, Robot- $130 million.
Same prediction as before.

Meet the Fokkers - $130 million. ($140 M)
Cast looks pretty good.

The Manchurian Candidate - $80 million.
Same prediction as before.

Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events - $130 million.
Same prediction as before.

The Princess Diaries 2- $90 million. ($80 M)
First one did pretty well.

The Polar Express - $225 million. ($200 M)
Still looks fun.

The Phantom of the Opera - $60 million. ($50 M)
Musicals? Might do well, but I’m not expecting it.

The Ring 2 - $120 million. ($80 M)
Can audiences stomache sequel?

Resident Evil: Apocolypse- $80 million.
Sam prediction as before.

Spongebob Squarepants - $150 million. ($135 M)

Son of the Mask - $50 million. ($25 M)
Looks bad.

Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow- $40 mill/$100 mill. ($70 M)
Doesn’t look too solid and could go either way.

Shark Tale - $130 million. ($140)
May do very well but keeping things low. Haven’t heard much about it.

Taxi - $80 million.($70 M)
Can’t say I care.

 

[Kevin Grey]

Evidently some of the other studios (including New Line) are disputing Big Fish's take. Three others have estimated its take at 13.7 million, which would put ROTK on top for another weekend. Guess we'll find out tomorrow.

Story

I never expected ROTK to reach $400 million. The fact that each installment outgrosses the previous movie while none grossing less than $300 million is an amazing achievement.

 

[Matt Stone]

Well, even so, ROTK's take could be (and probably is) over-estimated.

 

[Tino]

This is really amusing since New Line themselves overestimated ROTK's estimate last weekend by $2.5 million!

And they're accusing Columbia of being "overly agressive"??

 

[Brian W.]

I know, I thought the same thing. What's interesting is that Movie City News, who does their own estimates, has ROTK pegged at 14.1 and Big Fish at 13.9. And last week, they were way closer on the ROTK estimate than New Line was. It's still in the text, which was not updated after the actuals came in, just the chart was updated. (EDIT: Bottom of page has separate charts for actuals and estimate. I like that they keep the estimate charts up. Wish Box Office Mojo did that.)

http://www.moviecitynews.com/columni...04.html#finals

(And turns out that's where I got the $28.something estimate I swore I saw for ROTK last weekend, Tino. I didn't think I was THAT crazy. )

I wonder how MCN will do this weekend.

 

[Brian W.]

Actually, according to the article, it was another studio that used the term "overly aggressive," not New Line. "That seems a little high," is what New Line said... which is equally amusing.

 

[Kevin Grey]

In New Line's defense I would imagine that ROTK's projections are more difficult to estimate. The previous two weekends were skewed by most of North America having Friday off. Add the fact that its probably difficult to gauge the effect of the 3.5 hour runtime on Sunday results and I can understand the projections being off.

 

[Edwin Pereyra]

I demand a recount!

~Edwin

 

[Chuck Mayer]

I figured NL would be happy. I'd rather ROTK see #2 to Big Fish than Along Came Polly or Torque. It sounds more distinguished

I agree that NL thinking it's a "little high" is a bit amusing. I failed to get my second viewing...next week for sure :frowning:

Take care,
Chuck

 

[David Forbes]

Not a chance. This has Gigli-sized FLOP written all over it. It'll be lucky to make $20 million.

 

[Lou Sytsma]

So Chuck you are to blame for ROTK's fall from #1! This would have been a nonissue if you had have been able to get out.

 

[Chuck Mayer]

I know, I know, Lou. It is breaking my heart. I will be there to fight off Torque though

I am so jealous of all of you with your multiple viewings

My $350 prediction is looking pretty good, though ROTK will beat it by a few.

As for this year, I'll get to that soon. I do know Spidey 2 will make less than $350 million, and I do know that HP 3 will outgross HP 2. Beyond that, I have to think about it

Take care,
Chuck

 

[Malcolm R]

I don't know why New Line gets such a hard time over their estimates. All through the year other studios were off on their estimates, sometimes by 10% or more, yet no one gets their panties in a bunch until it's NL over-estimating a LOTR pic.

I still haven't seen ROTK for the first time yet so you're still ahead of me, Chuck.

 

[nolesrule]

And the winner is....


Return of the King

Top 10 Actuals
Film Weekend / Total to date

ROTK NL $14,209,098 / $312,320,936
Big Fish Sony $13,811,191 / $23,386,775
Cheaper by the Dozen Fox $11,751,349 / $101,147,842
Cold Mountain Mira. $7,881,729 / $55,340,445
Something's Gotta Give Sony $7,727,359 / $92,515,314
My Baby's Daddy Mira. $7,548,819 / $7,548,819
Chasing Liberty WB $6,081,483 / $6,081,483
Paycheck Par. $5,146,378 / $46,443,104
The Last Samurai WB $4,550,419 / $97,181,327
Mona Lisa Smile Sony $4,383,072 / $56,883,304

 

[Malcolm R]

Let's see if any of the press pick up the real numbers. They've been reporting with great glee the toppling of the "King" all day today.