2004 Box Office Predictions And Discussions (1 Viewer)

[Brian W.]

Uh...he did say "in my opinion," so doesn't that preclude him from having to back it up with any facts?

But there is interest in this film that goes beyond the church...if nothing else, interest in it as "Mel's folly." The fact that it's directed by a major star, and that it's such a daring adaptation, and already so controversial... there is a LOT of curiosity about this film.

I mean, show of hands... who posting in this thread is NOT interested in seeing The Passion, even out of curiosity?

 

[David Forbes]

"Read about the film" makes it sound like there are concrete facts out there to be had, but maybe that's just me.

I would be very surprised if it tops $50 million.

 

[Brian W.]

I'm on the fence. I have no idea how it'll do, not even a feeling. But not much more than $100 million, and probably nowhere near that.

 

[Malcolm R]

Well, we'll find out soon. It's supposed to be released on February 25. Newmarket Films is handling distribution. They've also distributed Memento, Donnie Darko, and Whale Rider. All releases were pretty limited, if I recall.

 

[nolesrule]

Show of hands? I'm not interested in seeing it.

 

[Vickie_M]

I'm just about as hard-core an atheist you'd ever meet, and I'm DYING to see it. The story is fascinating, which is why it's endured for so long. I've been interested in other takes, ranging from Jesus Christ Superstar, to Last Temptation, to Life of Brian . I love James Caviezel. And finally, the reactions from the Austin showing has me buzzed. I'll be there opening day. I'm intensely curious and I like good movies, no matter what the genre or subject matter.

So, if only Christians and film buffs like me go see it, it'll do ok. It won't do Titanic numbers (if LOTR and Star Wars can't do it, Christ isn't going to either), but I hope Gibson makes back his money at least.

 

[Malcolm R]

I'll pass, thanks.

 

[Tino]

Again, out of curiosity, why don't you want to see it?

 

[Alex Spindler]

Pretty much in line with Vicki here. Whenever you have a fairly gifted filmmaker (which I think Gibson is) and they really devote themselves towards a project, it's almost always worth seeing. It is also a subject which I don't know much about, so I can go into it with pretty fresh eyes. I'm quite interested in how it stands up from a storytelling standpoint.

I generally avoid preachy movies, but I don't get that vibe from this at all. As it stands, it is one of the few 2004 releases that I'm quite anxious to see how they turn out, along with Kill Bill: Vol 2 and Hellboy (how would that be for a triple bill?).

However, I would be remarkably surprised if it does more than $50m.

 

[Matt Pelham]

Isn't The Passion in some other language with no subtitles? No thanks, I don't want to sit in a theater for 2 hours wondering what's going on. Pass for me.

 

[Nick Sievers]

It is in Latin, and Mel Gibson originally stated that he thought the film would be powerful enough to be understood through visuals. He has since caved on that and it will be subtitled.

 

[Chris]

It is not in latin, but Aramaic, a dead language.

That having been said, isn't this thread about box office, and not "Passion"?

 

[Nick Sievers]

My mistake, I had a feeling I was wrong.

 

[Les Samuel]

Someone mentioned the Riddick Chronicles being a sequel to Pitch Black...........I believe they are prequels. Unless something has change they are filming two movies together.

 

[Dennis Pagoulatos]

I'm going to agree with Vickie as well. I'm very interested in seeing this movie; the obvious desperate "buzz-building" on the part of old Mel (the leaked trailer & the BNAT showing) have worked on yours truly. I'm fascinated to see what he's done with the material...though I don't see him topping Scorcese's Last Temptation (which I love) for power.

I think we're settling in at somewhere around $50 million for how it might do, which would be a huge hit for a distributor like "Newmarket" After all, what did Donnie Darko (which I also loved) gross? Like 2 cents?

-Dennis

 

[nolesrule]

Aramaic's about as dead as Latin.

But in terms of box office, I'll say $55-90M. I can't get any narrower than that.

 

[Kevin Grey]

Les I believe they originally said that Chronicles of Riddick were going to be prequels but have since decided that they will be sequels. I believe the analogy they are putting out is Pitch Black will be to Riddick what Hobbit was to LOTR.

 

[Les Samuel]

Kevin

Thanks, it's looks like they are sequels.

Chronicles of Riddick Trailer

Chronicles of Riddick I

Chronicles of Riddck II

 

[Matt Pelham]

Oh so it will have subtitles, still, I have no interest in seeing this one.

My predition: $22 million

 

[Tino]

Again, to those of you that don't want to see The Passion, is there a specific reason why, does it just look bad, or is there another reason you have no desire to see it? Btw, I say it will do about $50 million.

Back to BO talk, looks like ROTK will NOT be the fastest film to reach $300 million. Spidey will keep that record.