2003-2004 NBA Season (1 Viewer)

[Hunter P]

Just for shits and giggles. How about some early predictions so that we can say "I told ya so" in a few months.

My Picks:
Pac Champ: Sacramento (of course)
Mid Champ: San Antonio
Cen Champ: Indiana
Atl Champ: Orlando (Just to be different)

Finals Matchup: Sac vs. Indiana

NBA Champ: Sacto Kings (finally)

Surprise playoff team: Utah (I would have said Golden State but I think this would be the bigger surprise. Plus Utah is tied for first currently!)

Worst record: Utah (Just covering my bases. Runner up pick: Miami)

Biggest Disappointment: Milwaukee

Biggest Surprise: Denver (Not going to make the playoffs but they'll make some noise.)

Worst Off-Season Pickup: Antoine Walker

First Fired Manager: Don Chaney

Most Technical Fouls: Nick Van Excel

Most Overrated Player or Team: Allan Houston (again I almost picked Dallas but I always thought Spree was the better of the duo.)

First Season-Ending Injury (must play a game first so no voting for Grant Hill): Marcus Camby


Did I miss anything?

 

[Chris Farmer]

Shaky start for the Spurs that's for sure. Basically no point guard right now until Parker and Carter are back, and Rasho has frankly looked like crap. Here's hoping we pick things up quick. Oh well, who am I kidding, it's the Spurs, we're incapable of playing well before teh All-Star Break, or at least New Years...

 

[Mark Patrick]

I think stating that the Lakers have a 'slight' advantage over the Spurs is absolutely ridiculous. San Antonio is overmatched in every position except PF.
Western Conference Finals: Lakers vs. Sacramento
Lakers in 4

 

[Chris Farmer]

Like hell they're overmatched Mark. The Lakers have a better center by a huge margin, the Spurs have the better power forward by an equally huge margin. Malone used to be incredible, and is still damned good, but Duncan has been way ahead of him since TD's second season in 99 when Malone robbed Duncan of the MVP. Small forward the teams are about equal, although I'd probably give a slight edge to Bruce Bowen over Devin George, but neither is incredible. Tony parker is a better point guard now then Gary payton is now. He held his own for three games last year in the Finals against the best PG in the league, and two years ago when the Spurs played the Sonics, and Parker was still a rookie, Parker kicked Payton's ass up and down the court all night. Kobe when fully healthy and unidstracted is a lot better then Ginobilli, but not by as big a margin as it would first appear. So going down the line, Shaq is as far above Nesterovich as Duncan is over Malone, Bowen and George are about equal, Parker has a good edge over Payton, Bryant has a bigger advantage over Ginibillli, although in neither case is the advantage huge or even big enough that on any given night the tables might turn.

As for the bench, the Spurs are great except for point guard (and it's showing right now), and the Lakers have no bench.

And of course all this predicates on a healthy and undistracted Kobe Bryant. Take that away and the Lakers are hosed. I don't even know who LA's back up shooting guard is, but I know he can't keep up with Manu.

 

[Jan H]

LeBron James is the most complete 19-year-old since Magic Johnson. Believe the hype.

And, Chris, that you can even think that Duncan is better than Malone to the same degree that Shaq is better than Rasho is utterly ridiculous. Parker vs. Payton? It's more or less a wash, but give me Payton's savvy and defensive ability over Parker's. Kobe vs. Manu? NEXT... And both team's benches are equally untested and unproven. The bottom line is that when the Lakers are focused and hungry, nobody can touch 'em.

As for Hunter's predictions, well, Kings fans, you gotta love their optimism.

 

[Chris Farmer]

Malone is better then Rasho, no question, but then again, Duncan is the best player in the game too. 21 is 6 greater then 15, 18 is 6 greater then 12. Same size difference, in both, even though the numbers themselves are not the same. Yeah, Shaq kills Rasho, but Duncan is a huge improvement over Malone as well at this point. Malone is damn good, but he's 40, and he hasn't been able to keep up with TD since TD's rookie year. Duncan has gotten better each year, and Malone has only gotten older. And never mind the fact that Malik Rose matches up defensive far better against Shaq then anyone his size has any right too. But hey, the above is all my opinion, but to state that the Lakers kill the Spurs in all but PF is ridiculous.

Bryant vs Manu? No question Bryant is substantially better, although I disagree that the gulf is as huge as it's made out to be. Manu was hampered by injuries for most of last year, but when he caught on fire, he was incredible. His steal energized the Spurs to win Game 6 of the Finals, and only Duncan had a better +- ratio in all of the NBA playoffs. He's smart, athletic, plays great aggressive defense, and has the fastest hands in the league. Bryant's better, but don't dismiss Manu out of hand.

Parker vs Payton? Watch round 1 of the 2002 NBA Playoffs, Parker's rookie season, then get back to me. It's not even close to a wash, Parker absolutely embarrasses GP, and then more then held his own against Jason Kidd last year, the best PG in the league. Tony Parker is a top 5 point guard in the NBA right now. Payton, like Malone, is damned good, but past his prime.

 

[Jan H]

We shall see. Can't wait for Thursday.

If you believe Parker will continue to get the better of Payton on Gary's new team, you seem to suffer from Hunter's hyper-optimism. But the real difference between the two teams is a substantial one: Shaq. He is out for blood this year and the league will feel his wrath, particularly the Spurs. Expect the pimp-slap treatment of 2001 and 2002.

 

[Steve_Tk]

The Spurs may be good, but they sure are a snooze fest to watch. Tim Duncan has as much personality as large rock.

 

[Henry Carmona]

HAHA,

I like when they said that about Tim and the Spurs last year

Dont matter to me, long as they can execute and win games.

I have to agree, Payton isnt as good as Parker.

Shaq, although a monster, is only good when they can get him the ball in the paint, but against the Spurs center, it wont really matter where he gets the ball, lol.

Im hoping Malik can do some good. To say that the Spurs bench is untested, is ridiculous! Spurs bench is way better than LA's.

All being said, im kinda disappointed at the SA start this year, but when am i not.

As mentioned, we wont see some good Spurs ball till way later.

The NBA season is so long that nothing can really be said for or against any team right now.

 

[Mark Patrick]

Come on people. Tony Parker better than Gary Payton? Maybe in the distant future, but not now. He is definitely NOT a top 5 PG. And yes, Bryant is substantially better. You obviously have not seen enough basketball games. Don't dismiss Devean, either. He's extremely athletic, and has the ability to become one of the best SF in the game right now. As for the bench, Derek Fisher has a legitimate shot of becoming 6th man of the year. Tim Duncan is great, no doubt. Two time MVP, no doubt. But think this through. If Spurs don't have Duncan, they have garbage. If the Lakers don't have Shaq, they still have a title-contending team. Truth be told, Dallas, Minnesota(Yes, Minnesota) and the Kings have a better chance at beating the Lakers in the playoffs than the Spurs do.
My picks as the Top ten PG: Jason Kidd, Steve Francis, Stephon Marbury, Gary Payton, Steve Nash, Andre Miller, Baron Davis, Bobby Jackson, Mike Bibby, Gilbert Arenas.

Sam Cassell, Jason Terry and Chauncey Billups are also very good. But please, no Tony Parker. His numbers kinda pale in comparison with the elite PGs of the game.

 

[Patrick Sun]

Kobie really did lose a lot of weight over the summer. He looked like a stick-man on the court. I estimate he's lost around 15 pounds since the end of the past season.

 

[Henry Carmona]

Its all about matchups, not whos got better numbers in the league.

Tony beats Gary almost every time they play each other(.)

Every teams got their monkey, and Gary's got his

 

[Jan H]

How many centers create their own shots? This is yet another absurd statement from a Laker hater.

Like I said, Parker may or may not have gotten the better of Payton when the Glove was on some crappy team (I really don't know or care, he wasn't a Laker). Let's just see if that continues...

 

[Henry Carmona]

Parker may or may not have gotten the better of Payton when the Glove was on some crappy team (I really don't know or care, he wasn't a Laker).

Typical "No ones better than the Lakers" statement.

Reality Check: Dont matter whos team your on, your either good or not. If he couldnt handle Parker while with the Sonics or Bucks, he aint gonna do it with the Lakers.

 

[Carlo_M]

Tony beats Gary almost every time they play each other

I won't argue this since it is a true statement.

But I seem to remember Gary being on pretty average teams and playing a lot of help-defense, and having to generally carry the team on his back. Meanwhile Tony has had the luxury of Tim Duncan, DRob and a host of good role players.

Now we'll see (in this year's Lakers/SA games) how Tony vs. Gary goes when Gary knows that he has help on the other positions on the floor.

Since the "New" Lakers are still getting used to each other I'm willing to grant that even the Nov.28 and potentially the Dec.3 matchups may go to Tony (but not by the numbers they went before). The April matchup, an the inevitable playoffs matchup will really prove if Tony "owns" GP or not.

 

[Chris Farmer]

Agreed we can't make anything from any early meeting between any of the West's titans. All 5 teams made such huge moves we're not gonna see any of them really hit their full capacity until around the All-Star break, give or take a few weeks. As others ahve said, the basketball season is just too long to make any really concrete conclusions from what we've seen so far.

That said, I still stand by my predictions.

 

[Henry Carmona]

I completely agree Carlo!

 

[Carlo_M]

One thing Gary's going to get with LA that he has *never* gotten is (assuming everyone stays healthy and commits to Jackson's system of D) is tremendous defensive game planning - whether it's weakside help or forcing the action in one direction.

I remember what they did to AI a few years ago. AI clearly outclassed anyone the Lakers could throw at him defensively, even Kobe (although Kobe's taller AI was quicker). Kobe simply overplayed him to one side and forced baseline, with Shaq or some other forward providing rotating help while cutting off the passing angle.

Sounds remarkably simple. But if it were, then all teams would do it. What sounds simple is really hard to execute properly - yet the Lakers did and you all remember what happened in that Finals.

Gary won't have to do the things he had to do while with Seattle and Milwaukee, such as keep one eye over his shoulder to see if his teammate is getting beat. It's hard to play D when you're concerned with two or three people.

Also he will have a chance to truly "man-up" vs Parker (and other talented PGs). If it's shown that he truly can't go one-on-one, Jackson will game plan like he did with AI (like anyone thought DFish could handle him).

The Lakers don't excel at man-to-man defense. They excel (or rather *can excel* if they listen to Jackson) at Team Defense.

In any case, I'm really excited for this NBA season. The Lakers finally had it handed to them last year and showed that complacency kills dynasties.

Well the front office went out and got talent. Now it's time for the players to shut up and put up on the court.

 

[Chris Farmer]

Definitely agreed Carlol. Win lose or draw this should be an NBA season to remember. When was the last time we had five teams that were not only fully capable of winning it all, but putting up 60 or 65 win seasons in the process?

 

[Jan H]

I agree with your analysis as well, Carlo. GP won't be allowed to be dramatically outplayed by Parker based on the Lakers defensive schemes. Bummer about Duncan, hope its not serious. I'd like for the Lakers to smack the Spurs when both teams are at full strength.